The commodity markets are in a sustained run of lower prices. Joe Janzen, an ag economist at the University of Illinois, talks about what it might take for the markets to push higher.
“Maybe not news, but it’s a fact that we are in a period of long-run lower prices where we’ve settled in a corn price around $4 and a soybean price around $10, a little bit below that on beans, a little bit above that, maybe on corn right at this minute. But we’re in a longer run, a period of low prices. It’s going to take something significant to move us out of this state. Now, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what supply and demand for corn and beans looks like, especially as we transition to a new administration in Washington. But that’s the story that we have as of right now.”
Even before President-elect Trump talked about reinstating tariffs on imported goods, Janzen says he already expected lower trade numbers in 2025.
“I think we’ve seen relatively strong export movement for ‘24, ‘25 for the current marketing year for both corn and soybeans in the last couple of months. There is some sort of pullback in trade that’s already, I think, built into our projections for next year. Now, we could see some short-run gyrations, particularly as, you know, the tariff situation, whatever that is, unfolds over the next number of months. But it’s also true that part of what that export demand piece is, is it’s a buffer that soaks up demand in periods of low prices. It’s a lot more flexible, and it doesn’t necessarily mean substantially lower prices if we move to a period of restricted global trade.”
Weather or other market disruptions could limit production or movement from other places. Those factors might push prices higher.
“That’s true, although we saw a pretty a pretty good crop here in the United States in aggregate, with the national yield number coming in above expectations. But I think there’s also a scenario in which that national yield number gets substantially larger. You know, we’ve seen deviations from the long-run trend level yields of plus or minus ten bushels an acre. That’s very normal in our historical experience. This year, we were only maybe a couple of bushels above that. So there’s a scenario in which we see a 187-190 bushel per acre corn crop in the United States in aggregate across the whole country. That would, you know, weigh on prices. The other part is we expect to see a swing to back to corn acres and away from beans slightly. Current USDA numbers are a national planted acreage number of 92 million acres in the U.S. for corn next year in 2025. That is, you know, where the market’s at right now, maybe buying a few more corn acres relative to beans.”