Well, it’s another week, and we would love to sit here and tell you about all the positive changes to the drought map. Unfortunately, that is not the case. It has been another dry, hot week — or cold week, depending on what day it is. Here in the Carolinas, I’ve got state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, right now it seems like the major story is the drought. So, have there been any changes to the drought map?
“Well, there have been changes — not positive ones — and I think I can just about count the raindrops that fell across the state last week. On one hand, it was another very dry week, essentially no rain across most of the Carolinas. So, we have seen more degradation. If you’ve been following this story all month, then you know how it goes by now. We’ve been seeing those incremental changes — a creep of severe drought and extreme drought across the Carolinas. Again, more of the same this week. In western North Carolina, we’ve now got extreme drought in the central mountains and southern foothills that extends down into the Upstate of South Carolina. We’ve also seen extreme drought emerging across our northern tier of counties, really from Raleigh up to the Virginia border. And in South Carolina, they’re now starting to see extreme drought come up the coastline. Keep in mind, down in Charleston, they have had 1/100 of an inch of rain for the entire month of April so far. It doesn’t get a lot drier than that, and that’s why we’re seeing this steady, ongoing expansion of drought across the states.”
Now, why has this month been so bad as far as expanding the drought map to more severe and extreme drought in the Carolinas?
“Yeah, really just the timing, the time of year, and also just the uncooperative weather. We talked about that dry weather down in Charleston, South Carolina. We’re seeing the same thing in places like Raleigh, Charlotte and Asheville. It is on track right now to be the driest April on record in those areas. And we’ve had less than an inch of rain across most of the Carolinas so far this month. We know we’ve also had generally above-normal temperatures. In fact, Raleigh is also tracking as its warmest April on record to this point. But you mentioned it earlier — we’ve been on that temperature roller coaster, enough that we’ve still seen some pretty cold nights, even some scattered frost and freeze events, and that has a big impact on the vegetation. It’s usually greening up at this time of the year in response to the warm weather, but because it has been so dry, there’s just not moisture in the soil for that vegetation to pick up and green up. And also, those cold nights really stall out that green-up process. That’s one reason that we’re starting to see more fire danger. Of course, we’ve already got the burn ban in place across North Carolina and South Carolina, but now we’re starting to see large fires, especially down in South Georgia. Those could very easily start creeping up the coastline over the next month. We may see more fires along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina because things are so dry and just struggling to get to that usual green point in the spring season.”
So what impact is it having not only on farmers, but on the population in general, with these constant higher-than-normal temperatures and lack of precipitation causing these negative changes to the drought map?
“Certainly, some folks have been really hit hard by the realization that they are now under the gun from this drought. We have major water systems, including the cities of Raleigh, Charlotte and Rocky Mount, that are now either asking or telling people to start conserving water. Now, it’s important to note that this is really just the first stage of water restrictions or water conservation. This does not mean stop using water at your house. Most of these initial restrictions concern outdoor watering — how many days per week you’re able to water. It’s things like using a hose or a watering can instead of an irrigation system or a sprinkler. And also, there are just some general good practices, like sticking to watering first thing in the morning. If you water later in the day, then a lot of that moisture will evaporate, so you want to water when it’s going to be most effective for your plants. And then, in some areas, we’re starting to hear some recommendations for indoor water conservation. These are just things like waiting until your dishwasher or washing machine is full before you run it, and also just general, usually smart, cost-saving measures you can make to use a little bit less water.”
All right, so with all of that said, what comes next in this dryness and the higher-than-normal temperatures? And is there a scenario in which we could start seeing exceptional changes to the drought map over the next month or so?
“Well, that has been a topic over the last couple of weeks. At least in North Carolina, we are starting to see pockets of the state that are getting close to that exceptional drought level. This is the D4 category. It’s the most severe drought category on the U.S. Drought Monitor, and we really haven’t been there since the 2007-08 drought. But we look at areas just east of Charlotte, around the city of Monroe and Union County — they are running as their driest on record from the last 30 days all the way through the last six months. And this basically dates back to the start of the 20th century. So, this is 120-some years of observations, and it’s the driest they’ve ever been at this time of the year. So that certainly backs up an extreme drought classification — really as bad as it gets. And we’re also starting to see water restrictions in that area. One thing we see on some of the other maps we look at is record-low stream flows for this time of the year across North and South Carolina, and that really speaks to how widespread this drought is. This is not just affecting small pockets of the state — this is affecting everybody now. So, we are expecting at least some additional degradation over the next few weeks, possibly some areas getting to that exceptional drought level. The better news, though, is that there is at least more rain in the forecast than we’ve seen pretty much all month so far, so that at least could help slow that expansion and degradation by next week.”
What amount of rain would really cause the drought map to move into more positive territory, getting out of extreme and severe drought?
“The short answer is that anything would help. As dry as it’s been so far this month, and as little rain as we have seen — like that tenth of an inch in Raleigh — a quarter-inch or half-inch would be great, because that’s more than we’ve had, and at least that might signal that we are getting into a somewhat wetter pattern. To really make a tangible difference in the impacts that we’re seeing — things like streams, soil moisture and even lake levels — we would probably need at least an inch and a half to two inches of rain. Ideally, we would like to start seeing those amounts just about every week. Now, the challenge with that is that we are getting closer to the summertime. It is a lot harder to get those widespread, heavy rain events. You tend to get more pop-up showers and storms. So, some areas may see an inch and a half or two inches, but not a lot of the state. So again, that’s what we’re hoping for in the month of May. We haven’t seen a lot of April showers — maybe we’ll see some May showers and May flowers. And I would say, once we’ve started getting at least somewhat near-normal precipitation, maybe going into the summer, then we may be able to slow the spread and intensification of this drought.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast for this weekend and into next week. I heard a rumor that there is a little chance of rain this weekend. Is that true?
“It is true, and it’s something we’re watching closely because, again, this might be more rain than we’ve seen over the entire month in parts of the Carolinas. To start with, we will see more summer-like weather over the next couple of days — temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon and again on Saturday. Finally, by late in the day Saturday or overnight, it looks like we’ll have a cold front coming in from the west. We know how cold fronts work at this time of the year — if they cross the mountains, they usually don’t bring a ton of moisture — but there may at least be enough moisture along this front to fuel some rain showers. We’re looking at maybe a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain from that system on Saturday night and Sunday. We’ll also notice a pretty big difference in our temperatures. By Sunday, instead of upper 80s, we will be in the mid- to upper 70s. And then we’ve got another frontal system we’re tracking that will come through early next week, probably on Tuesday, that may actually bring a little bit better rain chance. So, in total, for the next week, probably around a half-inch to an inch of rain in most areas. Now, that’s pretty much average for this time of the year, but again, it will be a lot better than what we’ve seen and could at least wrap up April on a somewhat wetter note than we’ve been on.”