This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at brooks@palmettograin.com or 843-540-4540.
Wheat jumped higher Monday, as the forecast models are backing off the moisture totals for the very drought-parched U.S. Plains. That helped pull corn along with it. The rains in the Eastern Corn Belt are generating some headlines, as cold rain is keeping some planters from rolling in some areas. That headline may be enough to get some fund attention but will likely not lead to a sustained rally in the corn market. We have until June to get crops planted in much of the Midwest without too much lost yield potential, so there is a lot of time left and, with big equipment, only a narrow window to plant is needed. Also helping support the corn market is growing dryness in central Brazil. Much of the second crop corn was planted early and is close to maturity. For any acres planted later, there will be some potential loss if the dry forecasts verify. Parts of central Brazil have no rain forecast for the next seven days and heat building.
Soybeans finished Monday up 13 cents on news that a load of Argentine soybean meal was rejected in the Netherlands for testing positive for an unapproved gene. That gene was approved in the U.S. in 2019, and even China approved it in 2022. The cargo will be sent somewhere it can be legally sold, and we do not see any long-term fallout from this, but it was enough of a headline to bring the funds back to the buy side. Meal shot higher and pulled beans with it.
There were a lot of headlines over the weekend but nothing that helped drive ag market direction this week yet. War in Iran continues with no clear path for resolution. But the market is fatigued of trading each new headline, so it is content to ignore most of them.
We got USDA’s crop progress report Monday at 4 p.m. As of Sunday, USDA estimated corn planting advanced 14% from last week to 25% complete vs. 23% the trade expected. That compares to 22% last year and a 19% five-year average. Soybean planting advanced 11% from last week to 23% complete and is a point higher than the market expected. That compares to 17% last year and the five-year average of 12%. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged from last week at an abysmal 30% good/excellent. This compares to 49% good/excellent last year and the five-year average of 40%.