The Iran war is negatively impacting the world’s fertilizer markets, and countries that rely on others for most of their fertilizer imports are getting hit the hardest. Two of those countries are the United States and Brazil. Joanna Colussi, a research assistant professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, said the U.S. domestic industry produces a lot of its own fertilizer.
‘It supplies 60 percent of its demand for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash. Even so, the country is still sensitive to major supply disruptions and fertilizer price spikes. That’s especially true for potash. In 2025, the U.S. imported 95 percent of its potash needs, up from 93 percent in 2021 before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Between 2021 and 2024, Canada supplied 79 percent of the potash used in the United States, followed by Russia at 12 percent and Israel at three percent.”
U.S. dependence on nitrogen and phosphate imports is much lower.
“In 2025, imports accounted for 13 percent of nitrogen consumption and 16 percent of phosphate consumption. Still, both shares increased compared to 2021. Dependence on imported phosphate nearly doubled, rising from nine percent to 16 percent, while the share of imported nitrogen increased from 12 percent to 13 percent. There were also changes in where those imports come from. Over the past five years, the U.S. has become more dependent on phosphate imports from Peru, whose share increased from 85 percent to 99 percent. The country also became more dependent on nitrogen imports from Canada.”
Unlike the U.S., Brazil doesn’t have a strong domestic fertilizer industry. Because of the size of Brazil’s agriculture industry, it’s the world’s biggest fertilizer importer.
“In 2025, imports account for 80 percent of Brazil’s total fertilizer consumption. Brazil is especially dependent on external supply when it comes to potash. The country imports 96 percent of the potash it uses, mainly from Canada, Russia, and Belarus. Dependence is also very high for nitrogen. In Brazil, 95 percent of the nitrogen used in crop production is imported. Urea, the main nitrogen fertilizer, is almost entirely sourced from abroad. Domestic production is also costly, in part because natural gas has historically been more expensive in Brazil than in major producing countries.”
Brazil is somewhat less dependent on phosphate in comparison to others.
“In 2025, the country imported 72 percent of its phosphate needs. Brazil has significant phosphate rock reserves and has developed them more consistently than its domestic sources of potash and nitrogen. It’s worth noting that both Brazil and the United States announced plans in 2022 to reduce their dependence on imported fertilizers after the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains. Still, the production outlook has changed very little since then. In the United States, fertilizer supply and demand remained stable over the past five years. Consumption of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash declined a bit in 2025 while domestic production stayed stable. Imports also changed little. Meanwhile, Brazil’s dependence on imported fertilizers increased over the past five years.”