What will the commodity markets look like early in the new year? Ben Brown, a University of Missouri Extension Ag Economist, says he’s not especially bullish on soybeans.
“I think in the short run, and by short run here, I mean, the next couple of months, I’m not overly bullish on the soybean market. Are there things that could change that would create a bullish spark and maybe lead us a little bit higher? Absolutely. There always are those opportunities out there. But, at least at the current point, over the next couple of months, I’m not bullish on the soybean market. And in fact, I’m more bearish in further deterioration. One of the things I have been talking about is if things play out the way they think they do, the price signals heading into planting are going to certainly incentivize corn acres, and maybe that’s the case here this spring. But then, when we get around to the Fall, if we do have fewer soybean acres due to that or corn bids some of the acres over to the soybeans, corn creates the incentive to soybean acres and turn them into corn acres. That creates opportunities for maybe a little bit more of a bullish price pressure in the soybean market later in the calendar year.”
Any chance of upward price pressure for soybeans has to overcome several bearish factors.
“I think in the short run, there are a lot of things that are hanging out there that frankly are more bearish to the market than they are bullish. That’s not to say that something bullish can’t happen. We look at any potential trade disputes, any potential final ruling on some of the biofuel policies, and it just creates an environment where it’s bigger risks to the downside than the upside, and that’s what’s leading a lot of my thinking right now.”