This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at brooks@palmettograin.com or 843-540-4540.
Corn, wheat and soybeans were all lower Monday following weakness on Friday. Even higher oil and energy prices could not pull corn out of its funk.
On Friday, several news sources reported that the U.S. was very close to a deal with Iran. Trump posted this weekend that he was reviewing the terms of the deal. Then, on Monday, the Iranians posted that they were suspending talks and opening other fronts in the war. A reporter from CNBC contacted Trump to get his comments. Trump said that he did not care if negotiations were over.
With that interview, the energy markets went from thinking a deal was imminent to believing the conflict could continue indefinitely. Soon after that phone call, Trump posted that talks are continuing at a rapid pace. Once again, the markets do not know what to make of the headlines.
There were enough news stories last week that seemed to point to progress, but all that was shattered today. Trump’s later post was not enough to offset the skepticism. Despite the rally in energies, the grains could not overcome the selling on Monday.
The selling came on expectations of very good condition ratings and weather models adding more rain into the driest parts of the Midwest. The market was also expecting and pricing in very high condition ratings on the USDA’s Crop Progress report, which included condition scores for the first time on Monday at 4 p.m.
Corn planting was estimated at 93%, which was right in line with expectations and only a point ahead of the five-year average. Corn emerged was 76%, which was the same as last year and 2 points ahead of the five-year average. USDA estimated the crop at 67% good to excellent, which was 3 points lower than market expectations. That compares to 69% last year and 72% on the five-year average.
Soybean planting was estimated at 67% complete, 2 points behind expectations. That compares to 83% last year and 80% on the five-year average. Sixty-five percent of the soybeans have emerged, which is well ahead of the five-year average of 57%. USDA estimated soybean conditions at 66% good to excellent. That is 2 points below expectations and is also lower than last year’s 67% and the five-year average of 68%.
Winter wheat conditions were unchanged from last week at an abysmal 26% good to excellent. Wheat harvest was estimated at 5% complete, compared to 3% last year and 3% on average.