Mid-June is upon us, and the temperatures are climbing as we approach the official start of summer.
Cliff Mass is an atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington. Will warmer-than-normal temperatures be a part of that “Super El Niño” that some are predicting this year?
“In fact, it appears not. In fact, the latest model runs and the latest long-term simulations suggest that it’s going to be tailing down by this winter.”
The new information, Mass says, is that we are not headed for a Super El Niño and that it will probably be a more moderate one this winter.
“I mean, if you go to the latest forecasts, all of a sudden, you know, it peaks in like September, and then it starts declining a bit. So, the Super El Niño now, I think, is sort of off the table based on these. So, I mean, the most probable is a moderate. Could be strong, but the super one does not appear to be probable at this point.”
As for the summer, Mass says things are looking fairly normal.
“The situation looks very favorable at this point. You know, El Niño doesn’t have that much effect on the summer, so that’s not a danger. The models right now indicate that this month, we’ll have one heat wave, and then it’s going to get cool and rainy again. You know, that’s the story.”
Mass says the forecast calls for things to cool off again with more precipitation on the way.
To learn more from Cliff, go to his blog at www.cliffmass.blogspot.com.