The follow-up to USDA’s initial winter wheat production forecast for this season, released as part of the Agriculture Department’s June Crop Production report, continues to reflect the deterioration of the crop due to extreme dryness in much of the nation’s hard red winter growing belt.
First, the total U.S. crop production numbers from Anthony Prillaman of the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
“As of June 1, yield is forecast at 46.8 bushels per acre. That is down 1.7%, or 8 tenths of a bushel, from the May forecast and down 14.8%, or 8.1 bushels, from 2025. Production is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels. That is down 1.7% from last month’s forecast and down 26.5% from the previous season.”
And beyond that, projections point to notable low marks for this crop compared to past years. Take, for example, harvested acres: over 22 million acres, the same as last month, but down 13.7% from 2025.
“As we said it last month, it realized this will be a record-low harvested area for the U.S.”
Agriculture Department Chief Economist Justin Benavides says if the winter wheat production forecast is realized …
“[It] is the lowest since 1965.”
While the forecast in hard red winter production would …
“Be lowest since, I believe, 1957.”
How does this contribute to the total U.S. production forecast for wheat? Per USDA’s June domestic supply and demand estimate, according to World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski:
“In terms of the adjustment in U.S. wheat production from May to June, this was the first time that the wheat production estimate was reduced from May to June since 2014. And then, when you look at all U.S. wheat — winter wheat, spring wheat, Durham — we’re looking at the smallest U.S. wheat production this year since 1970.”