Before you turn the dial, no, this is not a repeat episode. This is a brand-new interview, but it’s the same topics. We’re seeing dry weather, we’re seeing a lack of rain, and the drought map’s starting to expand again around the Carolinas. But do we have any good news in store? Well, that’s what we’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here to find out. Corey, let’s take a look at this drought map. Do we have any good news that we can tell people?
“Well, we can start off with the few improvements that we’ve seen this week across the Carolinas. These are areas farther west in the southern mountains of North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. They have had some decent rain over the last week or two. And if you go back to Memorial Day weekend, that very heavy rain event, some of these areas have had 6 to 8 inches of rain over the last three to four weeks.
“So that has been enough to at least improve their status. They are still in drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, but now they’re talking about moderate and severe drought instead of extreme drought. Now, they are still seeing some impacts, including to agriculture in those areas. So, their drought is by no means over. Again, we have at least been trending in the right direction in that western part of the state.
“The bad news is really what we’re seeing everywhere else. It has been a very hot week. We have had several 100-degree days in the Triangle area since last weekend. And also, it’s been very dry. Any showers that we’ve had have been pretty scattered. Across the Piedmont of North Carolina, we’ve seen less than a half-inch of rain over the last seven days.
“So, because of that, we have seen worsening drought conditions. We’re now looking at extreme drought right along the South Carolina border, down in the Sandhills. And we are now looking at more exceptional drought farther north, really between Greensboro and Raleigh and then up toward the Virginia border. Those areas are now in that D4 exceptional drought classification.
“Now, I drove through that stretch last Sunday and actually drove through a rain shower in southern Alamance County right along I-40. Unfortunately, that rain was not very long-lived and only managed about a quarter-inch of rain in total. And that’s really the problem these areas have had over the last two to three months, just not getting rain in the amounts that they need to finally break out of this drought.”
So, let’s take a look at the ag reports. Do we have any updates on what’s going on with the farmers around the Carolinas?
“We do, and it’s really a dire situation right now. At this time in the growing season, the farmers would expect those crops to be pretty far along, expect to be getting those summer showers and thunderstorms and the rain they need this time of the year. And that has just not come through in most areas.
“So right now, farmers are looking at low water levels in the soil in terms of moisture, low water levels in their irrigation ponds and just not a lot of relief in sight because this drought has been going on for so long.
“We started in the western part of the state. I mentioned they’ve had some better rain there over the last couple weeks. Even there, out of Macon County, we’re hearing that the first cutting of hay is only about 30% complete. Usually by late May or early June, that first cutting is done. So that tells you how far behind the hay is right now. And like we talked about last week, that is increasing concerns that we could have hay shortages later in the year, with this year’s hay crop really not coming along as we would expect.
“Across the Piedmont, we are hearing that tobacco growers are really struggling right now in Forsyth and Stokes counties. A lot of those producers had put new tobacco transplants in the ground, and those have failed due to a lack of moisture. So, they’re going to have to start over with brand-new tobacco transplants. And again, we’re pretty far along in the growing season for that to happen.
“And really across eastern North and South Carolina, the main concern is with row crops right now. Of course, the rain has been a little bit uneven in that part of the state. Some areas have seen some decent amounts, but other areas have really struggled to get the moisture that they’re looking for, and that has really affected the corn.
“This time of year, is when that corn crop expects a lot of moisture as it’s going through that silking phase. Those silks need moisture to develop so that the corn can be pollinated. But with the hot, dry weather that we’ve had, that just hasn’t happened. Very reminiscent of the pattern we were in two years ago, back in June 2024. That was another very hot and dry month, and that led to widespread losses for the corn crop. So unfortunately, without rain soon, we’re looking at the same story here in 2026.
“And then finally, we’ll touch on the soybeans. That’s a crop we mentioned should have benefited from that rain back at the end of May. But in parts of North Carolina, like Johnston County, even that rain wasn’t enough. The soybean planting has been further delayed there, along with some of the sweet potato planting. So again, for the farmers that have crops in the ground, they’re not seeing the rain and the moisture that they need. Some farmers are still waiting to plant, hoping that we’ll finally turn into a wetter pattern as the summer goes along.”
Well, we’re about halfway through the month of June. Let’s take a look back. Really, with the exception of that major rainstorm we had on Memorial Day, it’s been basically a dry June.
“It really has. And if you look especially at the areas in north-central North Carolina that are in that exceptional drought category, you can see how dry it’s been. So far, as of Wednesday, Raleigh had only a trace of rain so far this month. Greensboro was only at one one-hundredth of an inch. And really, expanding out from there, it doesn’t get a whole lot better. Places like Charlotte and Wilmington have had barely a half-inch so far this month. Down in South Carolina, Charleston and Columbia have had only a little over an inch so far this month.
“And again, at this time of year, at this point in June, we would have normally seen 2 to 3 inches of rain so far. So that tells you how far behind we are this month. And, of course, that’s only adding on to those deficits that had built up earlier this year.
“In terms of temperatures, no surprise, it has been a hot one, especially in places like Raleigh that have seen several 100-degree days already. We will have more hot weather on the way this weekend, so that means that hot pattern will just continue as we head into the second half of the month.”
So, let’s take a look at the tropics real quick. Didn’t we call this storm in the Pacific Ocean crossing over Mexico into the Atlantic and reforming? Isn’t it Arthur that we’re now taking a look at?
“That’s exactly right, Kyle. Two weeks ago, we were talking about that activity forming in the eastern Pacific. They’ve already had three named storms in that region, and one of those storms, Tropical Storm Cristina, looked like it might drift across Mexico into the Gulf. It eventually reformed into Tropical Storm Arthur in the Atlantic.
“And that’s exactly what’s happened over the last week. There was a frontal boundary off the coast of Texas. Some of that moisture from the remnants of Cristina fed along that boundary, and it became organized enough to become Tropical Storm Arthur. It was a very short-lived storm, similar to what we usually see at this time of the year, a fairly weak tropical storm as well.
“But because it has all of that moisture in tow, it has created some heavy rain and flooding conditions down along the Gulf Coast. And now we are seeing more of that remnant moisture move into our neck of the woods. There’s also a cold front that’s moving through today. Some of that moisture from Arthur is going to feed along that front.
“So, it looks like by the time this rain is over today, most areas will see a half-inch to an inch of rain. Some areas could see 2 to 3 inches of rain. So, of course, it would be major drought relief if we could get totals like that by the time this day is done.”
Now let’s take a look at the forecast, and specifically, what do some people in Raleigh need to worry about when they’re attending the Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup championship parade? Are they going to have to deal with heat, possible rain? What are they looking for?
“Well, I think they will have to deal with excitement because, of course, it’s been 20 years since we’ve had a Hurricanes team to celebrate winning a Stanley Cup.
“So, for those tens of thousands of people who will be out on the streets of Raleigh, the good news is the rain will be out by then. It looks like those showers will taper off Friday afternoon. Any lingering showers will end farther east by Friday night. And by Saturday, we are looking at sunny conditions all day.
“It will be warming up throughout the day. By the time that parade starts around 11 o’clock, it should be around 80 degrees, and then we’ll be building to a high of about 90 Saturday afternoon.
“So, for folks who will be out there, I’d say pack the usual hot-weather gear, your sunscreen, your water, and maybe try to find some shade if you can. But most importantly, I think bring your excitement, bring your voice, bring your noise because the Hurricanes will absolutely want to see that as they celebrate.
“Beyond that, we will be warming up even more on Sunday. It looks like low to mid-90s in most areas with sunny skies. Then we’ll stay in the low to mid-90s through the first half of next week. It looks like those rain chances may start to tick back up on Monday. But again, this will be your typical summertime pattern with scattered showers and storms, and the best chance of rain this week will definitely come later today as that remnant moisture along the front continues to roll through.”