The USDA released the June Planted Acreage Report this week. Farmers planted fewer corn and more soybean acres in 2026. Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics said the big surprises came in the wheat and corn numbers.
“I feel like this was a surprise when it came to the wheat acreage number, and I think the trade was a surprise announcement on the corn stocks being very low and right at the low end of the trade estimates, if not just a hair below the low end of trade estimates. But it shouldn’t be a surprise to us, and I think that’s where I would classify it, especially given the lack of premium, and I would even go so far as to say the discount in these markets that we’ve been carrying.”
He said there are positive price factors in both corn and wheat that the markets aren’t looking at yet.
“So, there was a lot out there in the wheat and in the corn that the trade just simply had not looked at. I’m hoping, given the wheat acreage number taking probably another 30 million bushels off of carryover for the United States, and putting our ending stocks closer to 700 million bushels, compared to 744 from last month, and given the corn stocks number being about 115 million bushels less than the average trade guess, disappearance down 240 million bushels more this time period than the same time period last year, we’re tighter in supplies of wheat and corn. I’m hopeful that the market realizes that and says, let’s go back and trade the first notice today. Let’s go back and trade the stats. Canada’s wheat acreage numbers this morning that were down almost six percent. Let’s trade these wheat acres, let’s trade these corn figures, let’s trade the European and Black Sea weather, let’s get out of this funk of the funds and the investment money flows, so we’ll see if that happens or not.”
The reports showed confirmation that stocks in several commodities are getting lower than they’ve been for some time.
“I mean, we knew before the wheat acreage number was reduced today that we were dealing with 50-plus-year lows in U.S. wheat production. We know that we’ve got 41-year lows in crude oil stocks here in this country. We know, now, that the corn demand is much stronger than what USDA was presenting in their reports before today, when it came to the ‘25-‘26 numbers. Our exports by themselves are up 25 percent versus USDA being up 16 percent for the year, and that ends up being about 250 million bushels, and so, to me, the numbers all make sense today. It just goes to make you wonder, okay, is the fund market going to play ball with this, and are they going to divorce themselves from this mindset that we’re going to play it like we did the last two years or not?”