Well, we did have some rain around the Carolinas last week, but that rain has gone away, and what has returned is the heat — and a lot of it. How is that going to affect your forecast and ag reports? We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about that rain we saw last week. Did that show some improvements in the drought monitor, or do we see some degradation as well?
“Well, Kyle, I know the heat is on everybody’s mind right now, but again, if we rewind to last weekend, we did have some fairly widespread rain showers across the Carolinas. And really, it was the northern and central coastline in North Carolina that fared the best. Some of these areas had 2 to 4 inches of rain just last weekend, and that added on to some pretty good rain they had seen the previous week.
“So, they finished June wetter than normal. Places like Hatteras and Ocracoke were an inch or more above their average rainfall for the month of June. It’s the first time we’ve been able to say that about anywhere in the Carolinas over the last few months, but that has led to some improvements on the Drought Monitor this week.
“We are now seeing those areas right along the coastline that had been in severe drought improving to the moderate drought level. That is the first of the four drought categories on the Drought Monitor. And then we’ve also seen some other scattered improvement. For instance, out in the Rocky Mount area, they had been in extreme drought. They saw a couple inches of rain this week, so they are now back to the severe drought level.
“So, I think the main takeaway is that we are still seeing widespread drought conditions across North and South Carolina, but we’re starting to get that template for what improvement can look like. When you’re getting these back-to-back rain events multiple weeks in a row, that can start to bring the changes that we need to see.
“For instance, in eastern North Carolina, we are seeing those soil moisture levels improve from the top down. We’ve actually seen some groundwater stores improve back to near-normal levels around Plymouth and eastern North Carolina as well. So again, it’s taken several steady rain events over the last couple of weeks to get there, but that is exactly the kind of change that we’ve been looking for on the drought map.”
Let’s take a look at the ag reports. Like I said, we had that rain event last week. Has that shown any improvement in those ag reports?
“Well, eastern North Carolina, the farmers are faring a little bit better this week, but of course they are still dealing with the effects of the drought from back in the spring when it really started to get severe.
“The rain has helped, but a lot of those crops are still stunted for this time of the year. Down in southeastern North Carolina, places like Sampson and Duplin counties, we’re hearing that the soybeans are still really struggling through the growing season so far. Same for the corn crop, and a lot of the crops right now are just dealing with the heat and dealing with that ongoing moisture stress. That also includes things like sweet potatoes and cotton that, again, just haven’t gotten the rain that they’ve needed over the past three to four months.
“And then as we look farther west, it’s a lot of the same story that we’ve been hearing in recent weeks. Mainly the pastures are in really tough shape out in Rowan County in the western Piedmont. They’ve only managed one cutting of hay so far. Typically, they would be on the second or maybe even the third cutting of hay at this point in the season. So again, all that adds up to tell us that the farmers there, especially those who need that hay to feed their animals, may struggle to find those hay stocks at this point in the year.”
So, we talked about the rain we got last week. Now let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the heat around the Carolinas. I’ve been seeing the term “heat dome” a lot in weather forecasts. Tell us, what is this heat dome, and how is that causing these 100-degree temperatures?
“Yeah, I think that’s a pretty good description of this pattern. We’re talking about a large-scale high-pressure system, not just at the surface but throughout the atmosphere. And it’s kind of like piling up more blankets on top of us. When you’re putting that high pressure over us, that’s putting more air over us, and that is just trapping that heat right over our part of the country.
“Now, this heat dome really began building in from the West earlier this week, and that actually meant that parts of western North Carolina were the hottest places in the state. Back on Tuesday, we were seeing 95-degree temperatures out in the foothills and places like Marion that just rarely see temperatures that hot.
“And, of course, that pattern has shifted to the east over the last few days, so we’ve seen those highs steadily increasing into the low to mid-90s. This afternoon, we’ll be in the upper 90s, and places from Raleigh to the south and east have a chance at hitting the 100-degree mark this afternoon.
“And really, the hottest is yet to come, especially for eastern North and South Carolina. It looks like tomorrow, for your holiday, that’ll probably be the hottest day of the week. Low 100s are expected again. That’s about 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. So even though it all sounds hot, this is really a step or two above what we usually see here on the Fourth of July.
“And really, that heat will continue through Sunday and into early next week. It looks like Monday may stay in the upper 90s to low 100s as well. Finally, once we get into the middle of next week, we should have a weak cold front that pushes in from the north. The biggest change will be that it will bring some more cloud cover. That will bring some better rain chances, but that also may drop our temperatures a few degrees.
“You know, Kyle, I think when we’re talking about a high of 95 instead of 100, that’s not a huge change, but at least maybe it’ll feel that little bit cooler.”
So, the follow-up on that: Does this mean that parts of the Carolinas will be seeing the hottest Fourth of July on record?
“It certainly looks like it. You know, we look at places like Charlotte and Raleigh. Their record hottest temperature on the Fourth of July is 99 degrees. So, if they can break the 100-degree mark, that would set a new record in the Raleigh area. The last time we were that hot was back in 2002.
“Charlotte has to go back to 1970 to find its last 99-degree reading on the Fourth of July. And then across parts of eastern North Carolina, some areas like Rocky Mount have hit the 100-degree mark on July 4 before, but this could be a few degrees warmer than that.
“So, I think it’s going to be an unprecedented holiday for multiple reasons. Of course, it is a big birthday for the country, but also unprecedented weather-wise, just with this level of heat we’re expecting.”
Let’s take a look at the tropics real quick. Do we have any storms that we need to be watching out for over the next week?
“Well, the Hurricane Center has had its hands full this week. They were monitoring a system back earlier in the week, actually right off our coastline. We talked about the rain that we saw in eastern North Carolina last weekend. That was from a frontal system that had moved through, and once that system moved out over the warm water just off our coast, it looked like it may have had a chance of developing into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm.
“Ultimately, none of that happened. It never really got its act together enough to become a tropical system. But that’s a good reminder that this time of the year, late June and early July, is one of the most common times for storms to form.
“So, we haven’t yet seen that second named storm of the year in the Atlantic. Right now, down across the Caribbean and into the Gulf, we are seeing pretty high levels of wind shear, so we’re not expecting any storms to form in those areas.
“And I’ll say, as long as this heat dome pattern is in place over us, even if there were a hurricane barreling toward us, it would get turned aside by this strong high pressure. So, nothing to worry about from the tropics for us for now. I expect we’ll probably have at least another month or two of activity before it starts winding down due to that building El Niño.”
Let’s take a look at the forecast, and just give it to us straight. How hot is it going to be around the Carolinas?
“I think the best way to put it is it’s about as hot as you will ever see at this time of the year, and this is a widespread pattern. So even if you’re going out into the mountains to try to find some relief, it will still be in the low to mid-90s in places like Boone and Asheville.
“Out across the western Piedmont, including the Charlotte area, they will probably hit triple digits by Saturday. The Raleigh area and down toward Fayetteville could also see record highs, potentially 102 or 103 degrees.
“And even right along the coastline, it is very rare for places like Hatteras to even hit the 90-degree mark, but they will be in the 90s. Farther north, Elizabeth City could hit the 100-degree mark.
“So, we are talking about widespread triple-digit temperatures lasting through the weekend, maybe even into the first part of next week on Monday. So, it will be a relief and a blessing when we finally get some of that cloud cover and a few of those showers to pop back up because that will at least hold down those temperatures once we make it out of this weekend and into the first part of next week.”