This time of the year, it’s typically crop conditions and weather reports which drive the markets, but there are significant other factors that are on buyers’ minds right now. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX Group, says it’s headlines which are in the driver’s seat.
“Now we’re focused on how much corn, possibly, or wheat, let alone soybeans, China may buy for political rather than economic reasons, and we have a biofuel program that is strong, giving us strong domestic demand that is politically based. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, but it’s driven by policy. That’s what I’m trying to say.”
Suderman suggested that what’s happening in the Black Sea could have an even bigger impact on the grain and oilseed markets.
“What Ukraine is able to achieve with its improved drone technology and how that could dynamically change the global trade in a time when we have policy-driven demand that’s both domestic and global.”
Suderman told attendees at the 2026 Summer Showcase in Kansas City on Thursday that the war in Iran continues to be a distraction impacting the markets.