USDA’s July Fruit Outlook focuses on a variety of, well, varieties. Summer fare, from berries to cherries, peaches to melons, and like any such forecast in production, how that is determined each season is forecast in weather. As Agriculture Department Research Economist Helen Wakefield explains for this growing season:
“Warmer-than-average temperatures accelerated crop development across California’s major fruit-producing regions in 2026, prompting earlier-than-usual harvests for many specialty crops, including strawberries, peaches, sweet cherries and table grapes. In Florida, widespread freezing temperatures during winter storm Gianna in late January and early February negatively impacted specialty crops, including strawberries, blueberries and watermelons.”
So where might one glean an unchanged or increased harvest or shipment in summer fruits from the previous year? One crop is California apricots.
“California is the top apricot-producing state, accounting for over 90% of the U.S. crop. California’s 2026 apricot production forecast is unchanged year over year at 34,000 tons.”
Yet despite no change in Golden State apricot production:
“The 2026 apricot production forecast is 36,500 tons, a 5% decrease year over year.”
Florida strawberry shipments were down due to freeze impacts to the crop in late winter.
“Still, Florida’s strawberry acreage has increased in recent years from 9,400 acres in 2018 to 17,000 acres in 2025.”
As for blueberry shipments, forecasts through mid-July indicate:
“Fresh blueberry shipments from Georgia began mid-April and ended mid-July. In 2026, Georgia fresh blueberry shipments were higher year over year. Dry conditions during the growing season alleviated some of the pests and disease pressure typically experienced in Georgia’s warm, humid climate. Fresh blueberry shipments from the Pacific Northwest began in mid-June 2026. Early-season blueberry shipments from Washington state were higher season to date through mid-July, with reports of limited pest pressure benefiting the blueberry crop.”