Well, another week, and we have started to see the improvements on the drought map because of the rain we had over the last couple weeks. But how has that improved the drought map, and rumor has it some areas might be out of drought altogether? We got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. First, let’s just go ahead. Is the rumor true? Do we have areas that have climbed their way back to just abnormally dry and out of drought? And what areas still need improvement and to see a little more rain to try to get out of drought?
“It is true, Kyle, and this seems like an unbelievable achievement considering how dry we were back in the spring and early summer and that severe and extreme drought that we had across the Carolinas there. But as a result of that rain that we’ve seen over the last couple months, we have now improved areas around Charlotte, parts of the southern foothills in North Carolina, parts of central South Carolina, including Columbia, back to just that abnormally dry level this week. That is not technically considered a drought category. It’s usually a precursor to drought or something you hit on the way out of drought, and that’s the situation we find ourselves in now.
“Those steady rain events that we’ve seen in recent weeks have slowly brought our water levels back up in the soil and in our lakes and streams. Those deficits are about half as much as they were back earlier in the summer. So, we know those areas still need a little bit more rain to finally get back to normal, but again, that is good news. We are seeing that drought finally start to disappear across parts of the Carolinas.
“In North Carolina, there’s three main spots where we are still dealing with more severe and extreme conditions. One of those is down in the Southern Mountains. They had some mixed rainfall this past week. Some areas saw 4 to 5 inches. Other spots had less than an inch, so we saw some small improvements, but we had not gotten rid of the drought that far west.
“Also, up along the Virginia border, still some areas in severe and extreme drought there as well. Even going back to the middle of July, they’ve missed out on some of the heavy rain that other parts of the state have seen. Their lakes, like Kerr Lake, are still running fairly low, so they do need to get some more rain to bring those improvements.
“And then down in the southeastern part of North Carolina and really going down the coast into South Carolina, we’re still seeing those severe and extreme drought conditions as well. Again, this is the time of the year where those places would maybe expect some help from the tropics. We haven’t had that yet. And because they’ve also missed out on that rain, they are still dealing with the more severe drought conditions now.”
All right. Well, with all of that good news, we need to come back to reality just a little bit. Let’s talk about the ag reports. We have talked about it for the last couple weeks now. It seems like some of the crops are, quote-unquote, too far gone because of the lack of rain they’ve received in the planting season. So, let’s take a look at those ag reports. What updates do we have?
“Yeah, the bad news is still mainly with the corn and the pastures and the hay fields. Like you said, they just missed out on that rain earlier in the growing season during those key development phases, so they will probably not be salvageable, at least like they normally are by the time harvest comes around.
“We did get at least a little bit of good news this week that some places in North Carolina are probably going to at least get a second cutting of hay in. Again, that also looked improbable a few months ago, but with the rain we’ve had, that has helped those hay crops along just a little bit.
“The better news is with some of the row crops, especially the soybeans, the peanuts, the cotton. They are doing much better now. On the latest USDA crop report, more than half of the cotton and soybeans and peanuts are in good or excellent condition across North Carolina, and it sounds like even in some of those drought-affected areas, like down at Brunswick County, the crops themselves are looking pretty good. They’re just a little bit stunted because they missed out on that rain earlier this summer.
“So again, all things considered, I think the crops have seen a nice rebound. Hopefully those yields will recover as well before harvest time, but again, we know for some areas that are still dealing with that drought, they could use that little bit of extra rain over the next couple months.”
You did talk about the coastal areas missing out on some of that moisture from the tropics. Let’s talk about the tropics. El Niño has really caused not a lot of named storms to be formed in this hurricane season. What’s the status of the tropics? Do we have any potential storms on the horizon over the next week?
“Well, it has been a quiet start to the season. We’ve only had those two named storms so far, and they were both pretty short-lived back in June and early in July. But we have started to see more activity and more potential here over the last week.
“First, we have one of those blink-and-you-might-miss-it kind of storms. Back on Wednesday, Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the far North Atlantic. It’s an unusual spot to see a storm form at this time of the year, but the water is very warm up there, so that system got just organized enough to become a tropical storm. That morning, by Wednesday night, it had already fizzled out. So again, that’s not an impactful storm, but it does add another name and another count to the list this year.
“And now the Hurricane Center is watching another couple systems. These are tropical waves that have moved off the coast of Africa, and it looks like at least one of those has a pretty good shot at developing over the next couple days. The next name on the list would be Dolly. And the big question with those systems is, do they go into the Caribbean, where, like you said, that El Niño-induced wind shear has been really high, or do they go a little bit further north of the Caribbean and maybe start a track potentially toward the southeastern U.S.?
“Those storms are still a long way out. We will probably be talking about them a week from now if they haven’t developed by then. But again, we are looking at some potential. We know it’s supposed to be an inactive season, but we are within a month of the typical peak of hurricane season. So, this is the time where we would expect more of those storms to begin forming.”
So, a storm got formed, got a name and got downgraded all in the same day?
“That’s right, the same calendar day on Wednesday. I’m not sure if we’ve had many shorter-lived storms than that.”
I was actually getting ready to ask that question. I was like, has it really happened that we’ve had a storm basically form and dissipate in the same day?
“You know, I remember a few years ago there was a tropical storm Bertha, not the one that folks remember from ’96, but this was a weaker storm that formed right off the South Carolina coast. I think it was in a pretty similar short-lived territory of forming and fading in the same day. At least that one did bring rain to parts of Eastern North and South Carolina. This storm Cristobal was one for the fishes, as they say.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. Is the heat going to continue around the Carolinas for the weekend?
“It will. That’s the big story of over the next week. We’ve gotten a preview yesterday. We saw those highs make it up into the mid-90s. This afternoon, it looks like we’ll have upper 90s, a few spots maybe hit 100 degrees, and we will stay in the mid- to upper 90s through the weekend.
“Monday looks like it’ll be the hottest day of the next week. We do expect to see some spots hit the 100-degree mark that afternoon, and then we’ll start to slowly get back closer to normal through the middle of next week.
“But again, we are looking at above-normal temperatures over the next seven days. We will see some small rain chances mixed in, especially tonight going into Saturday. Maybe returning again by Tuesday, but there will definitely be some scorchers mixed in there as well where we won’t see a lot of relief from the rainfalls.
“So, a good reminder that we are still in the summer. Sometimes in August, we look forward to those 50-degree nights with a little bit of chill in the air. That’s not the case this year. We are dealing with almost 100-degree heat as we head through the midpoint of the month.”