By MIKE CATALINI and BILL BARROW Associated Press
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Democrats seeking the party’s presidential nomination in 2028 will need to prove themselves early on in states where Black and Latino voters and union members are key supporters, under an election-year calendar approved Saturday.
The primary lineup pushes Iowa from the traditional top spot and makes South Carolina the leadoff state, voting on Jan. 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia round out the early states, throughout February, according to the plan endorsed by the Democratic National Committee at its meeting in Texas.
DNC Chairman Ken Martin said that to win the general election, “You have to be battle-tested in a way that you already have campaigned in front of and for the support of various communities throughout the country.” That is why the calendar designed by the party matters, he said in an interview.
Some potential candidates in what is expected to be a large field have visited early-voting states such as South Carolina. Party leaders have said the order give candidates the best shot at winning back the White House after Republican President Donald Trump’s second term.
“They have to show that they can go to the South and talk to Black voters and rural voters, as well as out west, talking ranching and mining issues, to a border state, to union members,” said party strategist Karen Finney, who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns. “Whoever survives will be battle-tested.”
Former presidential candidate Howard Dean, a onetime Vermont governor, recalled his tenure as national party chairman, when Democrats solidified Nevada and South Carolina as early states behind Iowa and New Hampshire. The latest change is even better, he said.
“These states look more like the country,” as a whole, he said, “whereas Iowa and New Hampshire don’t.”
Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, said bypassing her state in the early going would sideline important voter voices and give a political edge to Republicans, who are expected to keep Iowa atop their calendar.
Nonwhite voters claim top billing
As the first-in-the-South primary, South Carolina was more decisive than Iowa and New Hampshire for nominees Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. All three dominated among South Carolina’s large Black population, which can yield more than half the state’s Democratic primary electorate.
With Nevada and New Mexico following, that will require candidates to court more Latino voters early in the process.
Shifting from Iowa and New Hampshire does not mean little-known candidates cannot catch fire, as Pete Buttigieg did in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, when he was a 37-year-old former mayor. They just will not be able to do it with an almost entirely white audience.
“If you can’t go to every part of this country and make your case, you should not be running for president,” Finney said.
The progressive vs. establishment dynamics may shift
There is disagreement over how Democrats’ split between progressives and mainstream liberals may or may not surface in the nominating calendar.
“I think our primary voters up north are probably a little different than primary voters in South Carolina,” said Boyd Brown, a former DNC member from South Carolina. “It’s not the woke ideologies that we just can’t get away from” in other places.
Nina Smith, a former Buttigieg adviser who now works closely with progressive causes, disagreed. Smith said Black South Carolinians, especially, have gravitated to more moderate candidates – twice rejecting Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in favor of Clinton and Biden.
But, she said, “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for” on policy but also “realists” about what is possible.
“Living through Jim Crow and other oppressive structures will force you to be take that approach,” she said.
Smith said that with South Carolina leading off and many Southern states following on Super Tuesday soon after the early lineup concludes, progressives will have to take the time to listen and then tailor their messages.
“A lot of Black voters don’t necessarily see themselves in the ideas and arguments that progressives put forward,” she said.
Unions will get a spotlight in the early-voting states
Nevada has the service industry unions because of Las Vegas; Michigan has the auto industry and associated manufacturing support industries; Virginia is home to more federal workers than any other state.
“Labor is still so important,” Dean said.
Beyond seeking the backing of organized labor, the campaigns and the party will look to unions for help in spreading Democrats’ message to voters and getting people to the polls.
More scheduling efficiency for candidates
Campaigns struggle to balance many demands such as meeting voters in person, raising money and the logistics of travel. As a result, places such as Nevada have gotten short shrift in the past because candidates, most from the eastern part of the country, have concluded the investment of time is not worth it.
An expanded calendar offers more clustering opportunities.
A swing to the West could hit two early states — Nevada and New Mexico — and include a fundraising stop in California, full of Democratic donors. A South Carolina trip could mean fundraisers and public appearances in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh, both in North Carolina. Virginia offers proximity to donors and national TV studios in Washington; the same options are available by adding a New York City stop on the way to New Hampshire.
Bre Maxwell is a DNC member from South Carolina who said the state’s smaller size and lower media costs are a financial equalizer, allowing not only the best-funded candidates to have an impact.
“They can campaign from the top to the bottom in a day,” Maxwell said.
It’s about primaries, with a clear look to November
Of the six early states, all but South Carolina have been competitive in general elections.
That means that even before Super Tuesday, the Democratic candidates will have spent significant time and resources in states worth a combined 43 Electoral College votes. That is not insignificant on the way to the 270 needed to win.
Television ads and news coverage can spill over, as well. Markets targeting parts of South Carolina also reach portions of North Carolina and Georgia.
After all, Brown said, the point is to put a Democrat in the White House.
“This is not a social or a debate club. It is a political party,” he said.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta. Associated Press writer Meg Kinnard in Columbia, S.C., contributed to this report.