Well, as we get closer into the middle of September, we are starting to see some cool temperatures, but not so fast, my friends. We still have some of those August temperatures we need to talk about. And we also have a little rain in areas of the Carolinas, but we got status as a climatologist Corey Davis here to talk about it. Corey, let’s talk about the weather this past week. We’ve had some hot temperatures. We’ve had some cooler temperatures. We’ve had some rains in some areas.
“That’s right. A week ago, we talked about how the calendar said September, the thermometer said July. July or August, and we did have some extreme heat in places last week. The Raleigh area hit 100 degrees on back-to-back days. That’s only the second time that had ever happened in the month of September. The other was back in 2023, so certainly unseasonable type temperatures for this time of the year. Finally, by last weekend, we did get a cold front that moved through. It brought in some slightly cooler air, but also some better rainfall. This was an unusual system instead of one of those fronts that came in from the West. We called this a backdoor cold front. That means they came in from the north and east, so that meant that it was generally those northeastern areas that picked up the highest rainfall totals. We also saw some pretty decent rainfall down across the Sandhills, and then it was mostly western North and South Carolina that missed out on a lot of that rain. So there was some good news there. That meant that some of the places, especially up along the Virginia border, that had been missing out on that rain in recent weeks, finally saw a little bit, but we just didn’t get that widespread coverage that we might hope for for a rain event. And then you’re right, the last few days it’s felt at least a little more like fall. We’ve had those first nice, crisp mornings of the year. Few areas have made it into the upper 50s for lows on the last couple nights. Now that’ll be pretty fleeting. It will start warming up again by the end of the weekend into early next week. But at least it’s nice to finally be reminded that yes, we’re in September. The calendar says so. The thermometer is starting to say so as well.”
Looking at the drought map, has there been any significant changes to it over the last week?
“The changes were very small, and I’m actually going to say that’s some good news because you think about the heat that we were in a week ago. It would have been very easy for conditions to degrade all across the Carolinas, but instead that rain that came through over the weekend that replenished some of our moisture. Again, the rain was not that widespread, but most areas saw at least half an inch to an inch, and that was enough to avoid further degradations. We did see some parts of Eastern North Carolina that saw some improvements this week. That includes some of those areas up in the Tar River Basin. They’ve picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain in spots, and also places down to the Sandhills have gone back to the abnormally dry level. With that said, those areas in western North Carolina that missed out on that rain have seen some small degradations. Again, no huge changes this week. Most areas have held steady, but we know that there is still widespread moderate to severe drought across the Carolinas, and we’re continuing to see those impacts.”
All right, let’s take a look at the ag reports, and how has this rain and off-and-on heat affected some farmers? Has there been some improvements or some areas too far gone?
“There is a really interesting mix on the ag reports that we get from the county extension agents across North Carolina. We talked about the spotty nature of the rainfall last week and even going back over the last month or so, and that really shows up in the crop condition reports this week. We look at parts of the southern coastal plan, places like Duplin County. They say that they’re really not feeling any ongoing drought impacts right now. The rain that they have had has been very timely. That has helped a lot of those row crops really recover from where they started earlier in this season. Just next door to there in Sampson County, also, it sounds like some spots have missed out on the rain, but a lot of areas have picked up some beneficial rainfall, and I think probably the most positive report came from Hoke County out in the Sandhills this week. They’re saying that the pastures even have recovered really nicely. That’s one of those storylines that we didn’t think we would see this year because the pastures have been so dry and so short throughout the year, but like you mentioned, Kyle, some areas are still too far gone, especially with the corn crop in some cases, with the hay crop as well. It looks like they will get some lower yields, even with that recent rain factor. And unfortunately, the areas that have been drier up along the Virginia border continue to be in the worst shape with agriculture this week. There was a really dire standing report from Warren County up there. Not only are they dealing with the impacts to the row crops like the corn, and those have been going on all summer, but even the produce there has really struggled with the heat and with the dryness that they’ve had. It sounds like that will shorten the supply of locally grown produce up in northeastern North Carolina this year. And then we know that that’s not the only challenge that farmers are dealing with. The drought has been bad, but that also means they’re having to use more irrigation. That means they’re having to buy more diesel fuel to power the equipment to irrigate their crops, and fuel prices are up as well. So that is one of many challenges that farmers are facing this year across the Carolinas. I think in some areas that the prospects are looking up for the harvest this year, but in other places, certainly they have felt the damage from this drought.”
Well, let’s take a look at the tropics real quick. Oh, it’s been fairly quiet after the last named storm basically came and went. So do we have anything turning up there, or is it still because of the El Nino in the area that’s causing these systems to break apart?
“This is an interesting milestone day for the hurricane season. September 11 is climatologically the most active day or the peak of the season, and it is all quiet out across the Atlantic right now. And you’re right, El Nino still is playing a big role there. We are seeing those elevated levels of wind shear from the Caribbean all the way out to the coast of Africa. That’s across what we call the main development region. That’s that conveyor belt where we tend to see those storms develop really quickly at this time of the year, and just nothing doing right now. It has dried up in terms of activity in the Atlantic. That also means that we’ve hit another really interesting milestone. We have not yet seen a storm reach hurricane strength so far this year, and in the modern satellite era, this is the longest we’ve ever gone on a season without having a named hurricane. So again, that speaks to the lack of activity. Looking out over the next couple weeks, some of the forecast models are trying to spin something up, maybe right down at the Bahamas or along our coastline. That would be a couple weeks from now, the last week of September. Of course, that is a long way off. The forecast can change quite a bit over that time. We may not see any storms by the end of the month, but that is one time period to keep an eye on. Again, maybe late September, we could potentially see some activity, but right now, things very quiet in the Atlantic.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. I know a lot of people are going out to see college football this weekend as it is back in full force. Do they need to bring an umbrella or sunscreen?
“Well, it really depends on the timing of the game that you’re looking at. Later on today, it looks like things will be mostly clear. We will be fairly warm this afternoon, looking at highs in the low to mid 90s, especially across Eastern North and South Carolina. For the fans headed out to the NC State, and don’t think there’s a need for an umbrella. Looks like it should be at least mostly sunny. There could be some better rain chances moving in overnight as a cold front starts to roll in, and then the best rain chances look. They’ll be during the day on Saturday for that North Carolina and East Tennessee State game at noon on Saturday. I think you could see some showers start to pop up through the afternoon and then later on that night, Kyle, I know you’ll be focused on the Coastal Carolina game. I think there’s a pretty decent chance of some showers and storms later on Saturday. Also, for that A&T in North Carolina Central game in Durham on Saturday night. I think they could be dodging some showers there as well. Those shower chances will go down as we move into the day on Sunday. Will still be a few degrees above normal for this time of the year. Highs in the upper 80s on Sunday afternoon, and then by Monday those rain chances will pretty much go away, and we’ll be back into the nineties, so it will still feel like summer as we head through the midpoint of September. Again, hoping for some decent rainfall this weekend.”