Well, as we get to the end of October, let’s take a look at the drought map. And right now, we’re not really seeing a lot of improvements in the eastern part of the state. The western part of the state is still seeing that soil degradation from Hurricane Isaias. We got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s take a look at this drought map. How is it looking in the east? Do we see any improvements in any areas, or are we starting to see a little more degradation?
“Well, one map we can look at is the rainfall totals over the last seven days, and it is pretty much a blank canvas. It has been a very dry week across the Carolinas and really across the broader Southeast region. Ever since Isaias moved through a couple weeks ago, we have slipped back into this drier pattern. Like you said, places in western North and South Carolina that got those heavier rainfall totals from the storm are still in pretty decent shape. We’re still looking at the soil moisture levels being at least near normal there, but we are starting to see some declines, especially in the topsoil moisture content.
“And then further east, some of the places that missed out on that heavier rain from the storm. It has been a very dry October and a very dry fall so far down in Jacksonville along the coast. They were on track for their driest start to fall on record, dating back 24 years. So that just goes to show how little rain they’ve seen. And with that lack of rainfall, even though the temperatures have been cooler this week, that has led to more degradations on the drought map.
“Down in South Carolina, we’re now seeing that severe D2 drought extending into parts of Lexington County near the Columbia area. And then in North Carolina, we’ve seen a broader expansion of moderate and severe drought. Places like Harnett and Nash counties are now on that severe drought level. Onslow County, the Jacksonville area, like we mentioned, they’re now in severe drought. And then more of far eastern North Carolina along the coastline is at that moderate drought level.
“We’re hearing reports this week from places like Perquimans County in the Northeast that the local pond levels there are the lowest they’ve been all year so far. So that’s not just a sign of that recent lack of rain; that’s a sign of the overall lack of rain and lack of recharge dating back more than a year. Again, we missed out on the rain that we hoped for last winter, in the spring, for most of the summer, and now that’s continued in the fall.
“So, when you look at the drought map now, it’s kind of a Jekyll and Hyde picture. Places in the West look better; places in the East look a lot worse, and they’re continuing to get worse by the week as we miss out on this rainfall.”
We didn’t get a chance to touch on this last week. Let’s take a look at the ag reports. Did the rain that some areas got from Hurricane Isaias — how is that affecting those ag reports?
“Well, one positive of this drier weather over the last week is that it has given the farmers a chance to get out, get those crops harvested at the end of the growing season here, and we are seeing in the latest crop progress report from USDA that those harvest rates are pretty much right on track, especially for crops like tobacco and sweet potatoes and soybeans. They’re pretty much right on schedule for this time of the year.
“A few crops like the cotton and the peanuts are running a little bit behind. We’ve talked in recent weeks about how some of those farmers have waited for that little bit of extra rainfall. Not sure they’ve gotten what they needed over these last few weeks, but again, that harvest is still in progress.
“Now that the harvest is continuing and about to wrap up, attention will turn to those winter crops and the cover crops. Conditions don’t look great, especially in the soil right now. We mentioned that drought expansion in parts of eastern North Carolina. Down in Craven County, which has shifted more to that moderate drought level, we’re hearing there’s just no soil moisture right now, and that is keeping them from getting some of their winter wheat planted. Also, those farm pond levels are very low. Again, just not seeing the recharge that they needed.
“Then up in Northampton County, it sounds like there’s also very limited soil moisture in the seed bed. That has let them plant some grains, but they’re on the verge of having to stop that planting, and they’re worried about potential germination issues for some of those winter crops that go in the ground.
“We mentioned western areas are generally in better shape as some of that moisture from the hurricane continues to soak through the soil, but we have passed a milestone this week in North Carolina. We’re now back above 50% of the soil moisture reported as short or very short on that latest USDA crop progress report. That’s the first time we’ve had that widespread shortage of soil moisture since the middle of July, so we know we did get some better rain in late July, a little bit in the late summer, early fall months, but just that lack of rain since then means that the soils are drying out and, again, not a great time of year for that to happen as those winter crops are going in the ground.”
So, I know we want to talk about the forecast coming up for this weekend, but let’s take a little longer look into the forecast. We were talking a little bit before we started recording about the possibility of seeing more of a localized El Niño in the Carolinas. Give us a little more information about that.
“We’ve been waiting for this, frankly, for a couple months now. We know usually in the cool season, which runs from the mid-fall through the early spring, we tend to see during these El Niño events a stronger jet stream that sets up to our south. That tends to bring more storm systems up from the Gulf for along our coastline. That obviously makes us wetter. We’re seeing more frequent rain events in those patterns, but we really haven’t gotten into that pattern yet this year, which was kind of a surprise, given how strong this El Niño event is.
“But looking ahead, some of the longer-range forecasts toward the end of November are finally showing that wetter pattern, that stronger jet stream setting up to our south by the middle of the month or toward the end of the month. So, we do think that’s when we’ll finally start to feel those local effects of this El Niño.
“Again, when that pattern does begin, we can expect more frequent weather systems bringing more moisture. And like we’ve already seen a couple times, those nor’easters and coastal lows will happen more often as well. So, places along the coastline that have seen that over wash and have seen the high winds can look forward or maybe dread more of those events over these next few months, and it certainly seems like, based on some of these long-range forecasts, once that El Niño pattern sets up, it may not go anywhere for a while.
“We could see some shifts in the jet stream; the storm track can move around just a little bit, but we expect once we get into that wetter pattern, it’ll stay with us, at least through the winter, maybe even early into next spring.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. I know a lot of people are out there wanting to dress up as a state assistant climatologist for Halloween. Will they need to wear pants, shorts, a jacket or no jacket?
“You know, that would be a first for me, someone dressing as assistant state climatologist. I’m not sure what outfit you’d want to go with for that. It’s a good thing Halloween is tomorrow and not today, because it will be quite a bit warmer this afternoon.
“We’re done with the 90s for the year, we think, but we still have at least one other 80-degree day to go today. We will see those highs make it into the low 80s across most of eastern North and South Carolina, and then we’ll have a cold front that moves through overnight tonight. This will be a dry cold front, so we really don’t expect any more than maybe a few sprinkles, but that will knock our temperatures back about 10 degrees for tomorrow. It’ll also bring in some more cloud cover.
“So, as you go through the afternoon on Saturday, get ready to go out for trick-or-treating Saturday night. It will be really picture-perfect weather, absolutely ideal temperatures. You’ll look at those temperatures falling down through the 60s by the evening hours. After sunset, things could drop down in the upper 50s, but again, I don’t think that’s gonna require a heavy coat, and also, you’re not gonna sweat too much if you’re out there in a lightweight outfit. So, great Saturday weather for your Halloween trick-or-treating.
“Then we’ll slowly start a warm-up by Sunday into early next week. Looks like those highs will make it back into the mid-70s. One thing we don’t see, at least in that next five-day forecast, is a chance of rain. Again, there’s just a very small shot of some sprinkles this weekend, but the next decent chance of any rainfall looks like it’ll come next Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday. There’s a stronger frontal system that’ll be moving in from the west, and that should bring at least a decent round of rain there in the first week of November.”
So, when people are going out Tuesday to vote, they don’t have to worry about taking an umbrella?
“Well, that’s another positive in this forecast. Again, we try to look on the bright side when it’s as dry as it is. Tuesday looks like it will be a little bit warmer, probably mid- to upper 70s in some areas, but it will be cloudy, but not rainy. So again, I think that’s another good reason for folks to get outdoors. You don’t have to worry about the rain. Don’t have to bring the umbrella as you’re going out to the polls on Tuesday.”