Well, there’s been a lot of talk around the news about waves and tsunamis, but unfortunately, in the Carolinas, that weather pattern has missed us. We have not seen rain in at least a couple of weeks. We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about what the drought map is going to look like because we have not seen a lot of rain in at least several weeks.
“Yeah, Kyle, I’ll flash it back for you. The last time we had measurable rain across most of the Carolinas, it was back when the State Fair was just setting up in Raleigh. It was right after the start of early voting in North Carolina. Back on October 17 and 18, we had a cold front that came through. Even that event did not produce really significant rainfall. Parts of eastern North Carolina saw about an inch. The Raleigh area saw about three-quarters of an inch. Places south and west of there saw even less.
“And since then, we have been in a persistent dry pattern. We have seen some more fall-like temperatures over these last three weeks, but that only goes so far when you’re not getting rainfall, and we have just not seen the rain over those last few weeks. So that has led to more degradations on our drought map in North and South Carolina.
“Down in South Carolina, we are still seeing that severe drought present across especially parts of the Lowcountry. Looking at places like Horry County out toward the Columbia area, we have consistently seen decreases in soil moisture in those areas over the last week.
“And then in North Carolina, we have seen the return of extreme drought. That’s the D3 level on the U.S. Drought Monitor. That includes parts of Wake County, also running down into Johnston and Harnett counties, out toward Wayne County. This is the first time we’ve seen that sort of coverage of extreme drought since the middle of July. So, again, that shows how long it’s been since we’ve seen a good rain event.
“This is also affecting soil moisture in the farmers in eastern North Carolina, but we’re also seeing it in the surface water levels. We’re seeing stream flows on the Cape Fear River at Lillington, on the Neuse River at Goldsboro, running at daily record-low levels for this time of the year. And keep in mind, October and November are some of our driest months, so we are still below what we’ve seen historically in those months of the year. Again, another sign of just how dry it’s been over these last few weeks.”
Now, are we going to start seeing cities and counties reimplement water restrictions because of the fact we’ve not had any measurable rain over the last couple of weeks?
“We have seen some of that already this week. Back on Tuesday, the city of Greensboro went into mandatory water restrictions. That’s actually the first time this year, the first time in this drought, that they had those restrictions in place. But you can really see why when you look at their local water levels. Lake Townsend is one of the main water supplies for Greensboro. It is now more than seven feet below its normal level. Again, it has missed out on rain for the better part of a year now, and especially getting in this fall season and not getting that rainfall, that has dropped those lake levels even more.
“And even though we do still think there’s a pattern change on the way, maybe even by the end of the month, with some wetter weather coming, right now we do need to do our part, make sure that we are holding on to the water that we can.”
So let’s take a look at the ag reports. How has this drought map been affecting the ag reports? I heard we had some more local reports coming out.
“That’s right. The only little bit of good news for the farmers this week is that with that dry weather, that is still giving them a chance to get out in the fields, get the harvest done. We know that especially the soybeans, the cotton, they’re now right in the middle of their harvest. So this is giving those farmers time to get those crops out of the field.
“The bad news, though, is that for the winter crops that are going in the ground, there is just not enough soil moisture right now to get those to germinate. We are hearing in places like Johnston County, again, one of those new areas in extreme drought this week, that they just don’t have the soil moisture reserves to get those winter wheat crops and small grains to germinate. So they’ve actually stopped planting right now.
“And if you look at some of the recent USDA crop progress reports, it does show that the winter wheat, the oats, are pretty much right on track with a five-year average for planting. But talking to some of the extension folks across North Carolina this week, it sounds like some of those farmers are just planting out of necessity and out of hope. They are hoping that if they get those seeds in the ground now, that they will get some better rain over these next few weeks and finally get those crops to germinate. They really can’t wait a whole lot later in the season before they get those winter crops started.”
We haven’t talked about the tropics over the last couple of weeks. Now it looks like there is a possibility of a subtropical storm. That’s a little personal to me. Talk about the potential for this subtropical storm, and would it have any impact on the Carolinas or any land at all?
“Yeah, I’ll admit that, out of the end of October, I had pretty much thought the tropical season was over in the Atlantic. Of course, we saw a couple storms last month with Isaias and then subtropical storm Josephine that formed right off the North Carolina coastline, but after that, we saw that wind shear really become even stronger across the Atlantic. That made those conditions very unfavorable for any storms to form.
“And we know historically, once we get in November, we just don’t tend to see as many named storms in the first place. So I expected we would close the book on 2026 with those 10 named storms. But now the National Hurricane Center has another system to monitor. This is out in the middle of the Atlantic. It’s south of Bermuda, it’s north of Puerto Rico, so over the open ocean, and it is moving off to the east, so it won’t threaten any land at least through the next week.
“But you’re right, Kyle, this could have a personal connection. If this does get a name through the weekend, this would become potentially subtropical storm Kyle. Very personal for you again, but the clock is ticking on this storm. As it continues to move to the east, it will run into more unfavorable environmental conditions. So if we don’t see that storm get a name by the end of the weekend, then you may have to wait another six years for your first Kyle storm.”
But let’s take a look at the forecast this week coming up. Is there a chance? I know we’ve been seeing possibilities of some rain coming through, but what are we actually going to get this weekend heading into the next week?
“Yeah, folks have been watching the forecast over the last seven days. You’ve seen the rain chances steadily come down, especially over these last two days on Wednesday night and Thursday. At this point last week, it looked like we had a pretty good chance of seeing some rain by the middle to late portions of this week. We were looking at a fairly strong upper-level low-pressure system forming over the Midwest that had a cold front that’s been tracking westward.
“But as we often see at this time of the year, as those cold fronts cross the mountains, they really dry out, and we just haven’t seen as much rain over these last few days. There have been a few showers out in the western part of the state, but not that much has made it eastward into some of these new severe and extreme drought areas.
“Now, those areas should see a little bit better rain later on today. We should see some redevelopment of showers and even maybe a few thunderstorms right along that front this afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals will be very hit or miss, though. Places that are right under one of those showers could see up to an inch. Places that are away from those showers may see barely a sprinkle, so I don’t think this is going to be the drought relief that we really need. It’s probably not going to help a lot of those crops really take root either, being such a short-lived event.
“And after that, we are in for more of the same of what we’ve seen in the last week, and that is sunny weather, that is dry weather, and that is fall-like weather. We should see high temperatures mostly in the mid- to upper 60s over this next week, but really no great rain chances through at least the middle of next week.
“So I know this dry stretch will probably come to a brief end with the rain that we’re seeing right now, but the clock will start ticking again on this dry streak once we get into Saturday.”