New soybean demand data and uncertainty in global grain flows are creating headwinds for the market. Researcher Ben Brown with University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute says weaker-than-expected soybean crush, limited Chinese buying activity, and export disruptions in the Black Sea region are all influencing trader sentiment.
“I think you could define the September 2026 crush report as being disappointing. It came within the range of expectations, but the estimate of 196.3 million bushels was nearly 8 million bushels below the average trade estimate for the month, but probably most notable to me was that 196.3 million for September of ‘26 came in a million and a half below the September 2025 crush number, which that’s the first month where we haven’t exceeded the prior year in a long time. We’re talking multiple years here where we’ve just constantly been setting new monthly records. We’re starting off the 26-27 marketing year, which started September 1st. This is our first month of data. We’re starting off the year lower than what we did last year, and I think that has to be a psychological disappointment to the market, even though it was within the range of expectations.”
Brown says soybean exports are also drawing attention. Marketers are watching China’s purchasing activity following recent trade discussions with the United States.
“We get asked a lot about Chinese purchases of soybeans, given that they’ve committed to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans. The week of October 13th, we did see China come into the market and buy about 1.3 million metric tons. I think that’s notable because that was really the first purchases of soybeans we’ve seen China make since the Trump-Xi meeting back at the end of September, September 24th. The expectation was that we could see quite a few purchases around that meeting, and the meeting in itself was kind of disappointing because there wasn’t a whole lot of reaffirmation about the trade commitments in place, and then we went a while without seeing any purchases.”
Looking beyond soybeans, Brown says the market continues to monitor the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These are two major suppliers of grain to world markets.
“Together, they represent about 25% global exports of wheat. Right now, USDA is forecasting a reduction, 17% reduction in their export potential for the new marketing year. However, if you look at the month of September so far, exports have been off 40%. While USDA is signaling the difficulties of getting wheat out of the region, the localized conflicts right now are much worse. The longer this drags on, the conditions would create for USDA to continue to decrease their exports of that region. Potentially looking at other places around the world, but we’re also hearing of just pulling down stocks. Of course, when you get tighter stocks and you get more volatility.”
Those global developments have contributed to a more cautious tone in grain markets.
“In the short term, I think I’m bearish, but in the longer term, I’m still bullish. So, for corn, I still think we’re going to see reductions in total production in the global market and specifically in the southern hemisphere as we work our way through the winter months. I think that continues to provide some support to the broader feed grain markets. On the soybean side, I’m not as bullish. Certainly, we have the RVOs. They’ve definitely provided some support. We’ve seen some pullback in those numbers and delays in implementation. But the soybean oil complex is benefiting from higher oil prices. The sentiment will follow the oil market largely there. I have no idea where oil is going. All I know is we asked a group of about 300 ag lenders where they expect oil prices to be in five months. A third said 20% higher, a third said 20% lower, and a third said roughly about the same we’re at. That didn’t really tell us much other than to say the expectation was not to see a whole lot of changes between now and February.”