Even if they haven’t finished harvesting this year’s crop, U.S. farmers are already turning their attention to 2026. Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics, expects to see some movement in the corn market in early 2026.
“I think there should be. I have said to clients and subscribers for several months now that I believe that any contract in the corn, whether it’s December ’25, or March ’26, or May, or July ‘26, should be able, fundamentally, to get up towards a technical area that I would say is fundamentally justified, and that’s around the $4.55-$4.65 area on the Board. Part of that is because I believe the yield is lower than what the USDA is suggesting. In fact, this week, I went from a 184.2 national yield down to about a 183.5 national yield, with the idea I might even drop it one more time.”
He said corn in different locations struggled with pests and disease during the growing season, and that will affect final yields.
“The Western Corn Belt has disease pressure. The Central and Eastern Corn Belt has drought pressures, and I think that’s really showing up. I’ve had two clients in north central Illinois call me within four or five days of one another, who, 20–30 days ago, were telling me they were definitely going to have a record corn yield. They called me, and they were almost done with their corn shelling, and said, ‘I’m not going to have a record. It’s probably going to be around 220-230, which is way off my record.’”
Zuzolo knows there will be a big corn crop coming in, but…
“I think we have simply forgotten the idea that our world stocks-to-use levels in corn are at 21.3 percent, and what that means is we’re at the lowest since 2012. So, you can talk about two billion bushels carry over all you want in terms of 25–26 carryover, but we are still historically very, very tight. And I would say razor-thin when it comes to world ending stocks, especially until Brazil gets its next crop off.”
He said $4.60 a bushel corn is a possibility heading into the new year.
Last thing, I’ll say about that $4.60 area, as a reason why I think it could get there is I really do think that the Ukrainian and Russian wheat and corn crops are still not in the bin yet, and I’ve seen numbers go up in wheat as far as production for Russia. I’m just really skeptical about that, given their weather pattern, even now during the corn harvest and getting into winter wheat planting.”