Well, if there’s one thing that’s really been in the forecast, it really has been on everyone’s mind lately, is rain — and a lot of it. We have North Carolina State Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, what’s been going on with all this heavy rain? What are the wettest spots around the areas?
“Yeah, Kyle, you know, we’re used to talking about April showers, not so much August showers, but that’s definitely been the story. Over the past week or so, we’ve seen widespread totals of more than two inches really all across the Carolinas this week, and it has just been the additive effect of rain showers popping up every day, sitting over some of the same areas. I know downtown Raleigh had some flooding earlier this week. They had two to three inches of rain just in one afternoon there. And then, looking on either end of North Carolina, we have seen some even heavier totals. Our office has weather stations all across the state. We’ve had two of our stations this week that have measured more than eight inches of rain. One of those is out in the foothills in Spindale. One is a little bit closer to the coast in Plymouth. And again, looking at some of those amounts, they were seeing an inch or more per hour during some of those heavy rain events. So, we have had lots of moisture available in the atmosphere, and when those storms and showers pop up, it has just been like ringing out a sponge over us. They have dropped some really impressive rainfall amounts just over this past week.”
Now what’s been the impact in a lot of these areas with all this sudden rain coming out like spot showers almost daily?
“Yeah, we have seen some of the flash flooding in places like Raleigh. We’ve also had flood warnings, especially in eastern North Carolina, for some of our rivers and streams. When you think about that much rain — up to eight inches — falling over a few days, it’s hard for those rivers and streams to handle that much water. So, we have seen some of those rivers spilling over into major flood stage. Luckily, as we’ll talk about in the forecast a little bit later, it looks like a drier week is ahead that’ll finally let some of that flooding recede in the wake of this heavy rainfall.”
Absolutely. But where do we stand as far as rain totals — like for the month of August and just for the summer in general?
“Yeah, I think a good way to put this is that if we don’t see a drop of rain for the rest of August, most of North and South Carolina will still finish the summer as wetter than normal — and in some areas, quite a bit wetter than normal. Down in Myrtle Beach, they are tracking almost 12 inches above normal for the summer season so far. Greenville, North Carolina, is more than nine inches above normal. In the Raleigh area, we’re about six and a half inches above normal in terms of precipitation. So far this summer, definitely a wet summer overall. Of course, thinking back to June, that was another period where we had these pop-up showers and storms. Early July, we saw that heavy rain from Tropical Storm Chantal, and now that we’re into early August, we are back into that daily rainfall pattern.”
But how is it affecting the farmers — especially over in eastern North Carolina and South Carolina as well?
“Yeah, I think most of the farmers are going to be pretty happy with the recent rain. Now, in some areas, there may be some standing water in the fields, especially in some of those low-lying areas. But this week, on the crop progress report from USDA, we have seen those topsoil moisture conditions improve. Like you said — parts of eastern North Carolina, parts of upstate South Carolina — the areas where they didn’t have quite as much rain last month, and where they had really felt the effects of that late-month heat wave, they had seen some of those soil moisture levels drop. So, we’ve seen some solid improvements in soil moisture conditions. Crop progress is also still moving along really nicely, and we’ve hit a good milestone this week. We are now seeing more than a third of the corn in North Carolina that has reached maturity. Certainly, for the corn growers, that is going to be a huge sigh of relief. We know last year how difficult of a growing season it was, with that heat and the drought — especially back in June and early July. They made it through this summer without really seeing any drought. Had a few small periods of heat, but some pretty regular rainfall as well. So, this is shaping up to be a much better harvest for the corn crop this year.”
Absolutely, and that’s good news for the corn growers. But we have an elephant in the room over in the Atlantic right now — Tropical Storm Erin. They’re talking about it possibly being a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. What’s the potential of it affecting the Carolinas?
“Yeah, this is a storm we’re starting to watch much more closely. Of course, last week at this time, we were still looking at Tropical Storm Dexter. It formed off our coastline and then moved off to the north and east. Now that Dexter is out of the way, Erin is definitely in our sights. It developed earlier this week right off the coast of Africa — very typical for storms at this time of the year. They develop that far east. They have that long runway coming across the Atlantic where they can strengthen. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing out of Erin right now — still a tropical storm this morning, but expected to reach hurricane strength by Friday afternoon, potentially even major hurricane strength later this weekend. That would make it our first hurricane and first major hurricane of the year so far in 2025. And then, looking ahead at the forecast, Erin will start curving to the north early next week. At this point, most of the forecasts are showing it staying offshore. It should get pushed back out to sea without actually reaching the coast of the Carolinas. But keep in mind, this is all going to happen more than a week away. There is still time for that forecast to change and to shift. Definitely worth keeping our eye on Erin. But at this point, it looks like the most likely impacts would be possibly some gusty winds along our coast — certainly some high surf and some strong rip currents, especially by next weekend. And again, keep your eye on this storm, because if things change, that could potentially put some of our coastal areas in harm’s way from some of those stronger winds and potentially some of the rain from that hurricane.”
And that kind of leads to my next question. So, if the forecast changes, what potential impacts — with all the rain that we have had over just this summer — could that cause for North and South Carolina?
“Yeah, you know, we’ve seen this play out in the past. You think back to 1999 — we had a really heavy rain event from Hurricane Dennis in early September that was followed less than two weeks later by another storm in Hurricane Floyd. And we remember the sort of flooding that we had there. We saw the same thing in 2016 in the Fayetteville area. They had some really heavy rain showers — 8 to 10 inches — a week or so before Hurricane Matthew came through. And then, when that extra moisture from Matthew reached them, there was just nowhere for that water to go. So, when we’ve been in a wet pattern like we have been lately, there’s always that concern that if another storm comes along, that could produce some flooding issues again. Right now, that looks less likely with Erin if that track keeps it offshore. But keep in mind, we are still a month away from the typical peak of hurricane season. Any storms that form and reach us during that time could create those flooding impacts like we’ve seen in the past.”
All right, let’s talk about the local forecast. What’s the forecast looking like over the next few days?
“Well, I think for the folks — including some of the farmers — who are saying, ‘Rain, rain, go away,’ who want a chance for some of that water to finally disappear, they will get their wish. We’ll still have a small chance of scattered showers and storms, especially this afternoon and on into tomorrow evening. By Sunday, it looks like things will clear out really nicely — looking at sunny skies through early next week with lower rain chances. High temperatures will rebound to pretty close to normal. Most areas will see some upper 80s, maybe close to 90s as you head farther east — pretty typical conditions for this time of year. But again, I know a lot of folks will be relieved to have a break from that heavy rainfall.”