Questions remain about when cattle producers may begin rebuilding the size of America’s herds. Dr. Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University Extension, talks about where things are at.
“We don’t have any data yet to confirm it. My feeling is, anecdotally, in terms of talking to producers, you look at the improvement in drought conditions, at least in the southern part of the country, the southern plains, and just kind of the general atmosphere, then I think we’re probably beginning some heifer retention now. The only real indication we’ve had of that was the April Cattle on Feed Report had the quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers on feed, and it did show the biggest decrease in heifers on feed in about five years.”
There’s still a long way to go yet before the full rebuild kicks into gear.
“Now, it’s still at average levels. It’s got to drop a lot further to be sure that we’re retaining heifers that would lead to hurt rebuilding, but it looks like maybe they were in the early stages of that. So, I think it’s probably happening, and I think that’s part of the reason why these markets continue to be very strongly supported.”
He says cattle prices are continuing in uncharted territory.
“The longer-term or the underlying fundamentals would suggest that if we are beginning some heifer retention, that’s the early stages of what will lead to the tightest squeeze in feeder cattle, suggesting that prices will go higher before they peak out. It may not happen in 2025. We could be several months away from that, so there’s that. At the same time, again, there are awfully strong prices, and the market is sending very strong signals, particularly to the cow-calf sector, to engage in this herd rebuilding when we can.”