Well, the big word, no question about this in weather is pollen, to tell us where it’s coming from and just how bad it is, as if we don’t already know Corey Davis from the state climate office of North Carolina. Last week, Corey I went to South Carolina. When I got to Columbia, the next day, my car was covered in pollen, and I texted my wife, and I said, Hey, the pollen is on the way. An hour later, she texted me a picture of her red car, which was then yellow, and I realized, yep, the pollen has arrived everywhere. It’s man, it’s thick, it’s bad. What are we looking at here?
“Yeah, Mike, you know, pollen is always a story at this time of the year, as we’re getting into the spring, we’re getting these warmer days, but it has been especially bad this year and even early in the season, compared to what we usually see again, one of those factors has just been the warm temperatures, those temperatures in the springtime are like an alarm clock for the trees, for the plants, for the grasses that put out that pollen, so they have been producing it in full force over the past few weeks. Another thing we’ve seen is some windy days, so anytime that pollen gets airborne, it is getting stirred up by the wind. And then in some areas, you’re getting pollen accumulating on other pollen on surfaces. When you get a good, gusty wind that comes through, it’s just kicking up that cloud and making it even bigger. And then finally, we just haven’t had very frequent rain or rainfall over the past few weeks. The few rain events that we’ve had in most areas have been pretty minor, generally a quarter inch or less. So without that rain to really settle down the pollen activity, it has just stayed in the air. So one thing we’ve seen from the Division of Air quality is pollen monitoring lab in Raleigh is very high tree pollen levels over the past week. Now, tree pollen usually is on the increase at this time of the year, but it typically gets to its peak by the middle of April, so seeing those high levels in late March is definitely a little bit early. The other really surprising one is the grass pollen levels. Now, these don’t cause as much problems. There’s not as visible as the tree pollen, but we saw for the first time ever since they’ve been recording that data since 1999 some high grass pollen levels in the month of March. These usually don’t peak until the month of May. So again, very early pollen activity of all sorts this early in the season.”
Maybe it’s a good thing we’re getting it all at one time. Are we going to get through this at the same time? And any idea when we’re going to get past it?
“Well, Mike, one thing we’ve learned over the past couple of years, when we’ve also had some of these early starts to the pollen season, is that there’s no such thing as just getting it out of the way early. That’s just going to get even more time for these trees and grasses to produce that pollen all throughout the spring. So that means, instead of an early allergy season, it’s just an extended allergy season for the folks that are sensitive to that pollen, and definitely for the folks that have a red card. You know, it’s going to be yellow for a little bit longer this year.”
And so is my white one, and so is my green truck. But okay, thanks a lot. So we have this to look forward to for a good long time. No rain and, you know, you mentioned this, that would have knocked back the pollen a little bit. You would have thought, but we haven’t had that. What’s the situation on the Drought Monitor?
“Yeah, we’ve seen some expansion on the US Drought Monitor for North and South Carolina here over the past week. In North Carolina, it’s mainly areas further north and west, like the triad, they went through the month of March in some areas with less than an inch of rain in total. So they’re seeing those increased impacts, those low stream flow levels, low soil moisture conditions. In South Carolina. We’ve actually now got some severe drought on the map in McCormick County, a little bit further west. That’s not too far from where some of those large wildfires had been burning in western South Carolina. Now some of those areas did get a little bit of relief earlier this week, back on Monday, there was a cold front that rolled through. It produced an inch and a half to two inches of rain in some areas, again, not widespread. Totals that high, but we did at least see some of those wildfires get a little bit more under control. The big one in South Carolina, the Table Rock fire now about 91% contained. And then a couple of the big ones in western North Carolina and Polk County are both above 60% contained. So at least the rains that we have gotten have been a nice help for those fires that are going on.”
Let’s take a look at the forecast. Is there any sign of rain coming in that might help, A, those wildfires and B, knock back the pollen, at least for a day or two?
“Well, we’re looking at the next best chance of rain coming later in the weekend, especially Sunday night into Monday before we get there, though, the big story is going to be the heat, and it will feel like summer here. Over the next couple days, we got a taste of that. Yesterday, we were up in the mid to upper 80s in most areas. Today through Sunday, our high temperatures will be flirting with 90 degrees, and that is very unusual to see temperatures that warm at this time of the year. Just for reference, the average first 90-degree day for most of southeastern North Carolina is in the middle of May, so we’re over a month early if we hit that 90-degree mark here over the next few days. But again, after that, the story will be the rain coming in on Sunday night, a fairly strong cold front will be moving through. Could produce some pretty widespread showers, maybe even a few thunderstorms as it comes in late on Sunday afternoon. One of the big question marks is, how long will this rain last? Some of the forecasters showing that this front may slow down or even stall out across eastern North and South Carolina during the day on Monday, that could produce some prolonged rain and even locally heavier rainfall amounts. So at this point, we’re looking at most areas getting at least half an inch to three quarters of an inch. And then if you’re parked under one of those long-lived showers, you can see upwards of two, maybe two and a half or three inches of rain here through the end of the day on Monday. So that would definitely be a difference maker in terms of drought conditions. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good, soaking, steady rain event like that. Really back to the middle of March, when we had the last one of those types of events. But again, we’ll hope for this being the first of many rounds of April showers that will help us dig out of some of those rainfall deficits we’ve been in.”
Cooler temperatures behind that front that comes in?
“We will definitely see a big cool down, especially by Tuesday night. It looks like some areas, mainly further west, could flirt with the freezing mark. You know, we talked a couple weeks ago about that freeze risk for eastern North Carolina, and we mentioned how they were getting past that average last freeze date. Don’t think they’ll have to worry too much about a freeze in this case, but there could be some frost and areas on Wednesday morning, and then we’re going to stay in a somewhat cooler pattern even through the middle of April. The forecast right now we’re showing some pretty strong high pressure to the north that will help lock some of that cool air in. So it’s going to be a big temperature roller coaster here. Over the next week or two, we’re going to go from almost 90 degrees this weekend down to close to freezing by the middle of next week.”
From 90 to freezing. Welcome to the Carolinas.