The USDA’s April Wheat Outlook shows global wheat ending stocks for 2023-2024 are projected down this month by 0.6 million metric tons to 258.3 million metric tons. The agency says that’s the lowest level in eight years.
The biggest factor in this month’s decline is India’s wheat stocks, which are forecast down 2.1 million metric tons to 6.9 million metric tons. India’s government stocks estimates implied a stronger pace of use than previously expected. If this forecast is realized, India’s ending stocks will have declined more than 20 million metric tons from the peak of 27.8 million tons in 2020-2021. Global stocks have slipped 39 MMT from the peak level of 297 MMT in 2019-2020, with China estimated to account for 18 MMT of that decline.
Total exporter-held ending stocks have been relatively consistent over the last several years, not showing the same declining trend as China and India’s stocks.