This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at brooks@palmettograin.com or 843-540-4540.
I was so sure going home Wednesday night that we would either have a big trade deal to talk about and the soybean market would rally, or Trump or Xi would blow the thing up and walk away angry, and the ag markets would fall dramatically. One day I will learn that there is not much in life that is black or white.
What we woke up to on Thursday morning was a whole lot of bluster and not much substance. What was touted as a trade deal was really just a temporary pause. Not much was settled; it was mostly just kicked down the road.
Initially after the meeting, Trump said that China had agreed to buy a substantial amount of soybeans and sorghum, but the market has had too many vague promises, so initially the soybean market dropped pretty significantly. Then on Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans before January and 25 million metric tons each year for the next three years.
Twelve million metric tons is around 433 million bushels. That is just a little bit higher than what we had estimated they needed to cover their usage for December and January before the Brazilian crop is ready. The extra gives them a little buffer in case Brazilian beans are delayed.
How enforceable the multiyear commitment is in a one-year agreement is up for debate. But the figure of 25 million metric tons is less than the 27 million metric tons they imported from us last year, so it is certainly plausible that they will buy that much.
After Secretary Bessent’s figures came out, the market rallied from down double digits to up double digits. November beans had a trading range today of 44 cents on Thursday. It is worth noting there was absolutely no confirmation from the Chinese side of the figures of ag purchases. They only said that they would begin to increase purchases.
So, what did we learn from the meeting? Not much. We can probably rule out the worst-case scenario where China buys nothing from the U.S. That probably gives us some support on the downside from trading to new lows. But we also do not see a runaway market to the upside.
We have probably just shifted the trading range up higher and will continue to trade sideways in that new range until more is known about the South American crop. Since USDA reports have been paused due to the government shutdown, we still have some uncertainty about our own crop sizes. We need to see purchases of soybeans continue after the few cargoes we saw bought this week.
Unfortunately, due to the government shutdown, we also do not get flash sales reported, so we are reliant on the big merchants to announce the sales they have made. That leaves a big blind spot in the market.
The shift higher in the soybean market does get us at least closer to breakeven than we were last week, so that is a good thing, but this is far from the earth-shattering agreement the administration is trying to spin it into. Without soybeans as the boat anchor, corn can get back to trading its tighter fundamentals. Seasonals turn more positive through the winter, so money flow can be our friend again. Work targets to get more sales on.