This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Yesterday afternoon we got USDA’s Weekly Crop Progress Report. Market had expected big progress to be made planting with the weather window open. As of Sunday, USDA estimated corn planting at 24% complete which advanced 12% from last week. That was a point slower what the trade was expecting but 2 points ahead of average pace. Last year we were at 25% this week.  Most states in the Western Corn Belt were ahead of their average pace where it has been dry. Illinois is 10 points behind average and Kentucky is 13. South Dakota is 16 points ahead of average, Iowa is 6, Kansas is 10 and Arkansas is 15. 

Soybeans were estimated at 18% planted which is a point ahead of market expectations and advanced 10 points from last week. Last year this week we were 17% planted and 12% is the average for this week. Cotton was estimated at 15% planted compared to 11% last week, 14% last year and 14% on average. The wheat crop was rated at 49% good/excellent compared to 47% expected. Conditions improved by 4 points as it was only rated at 45% good/excellent last week. This is the same national ratings we had last year this week. Notable improvements were Kansas up 6 points and Oklahoma improving 5. Notable declines were in North Carolina down 8 points and Michigan down 7. Some of the selling pressure on wheat last week was due to the rain coming through the plains that improved wheat conditions there. 

Much of the corn-belt got a moisture recharge from the recent weather systems. Some got more than is helpful but the area of drought has continued to shrink. The Dakotas are expected to get a dose of rain from the next system but it is a very unpredictable system so totals are still unknown. After the next system, the models indicate a long window of dry weather for much of the Midwest. That dry period will allow farmers to complete planting timely. Early planted crops are one defense against a drought. The long term models show a drying after the next system and then trending dry for the next few weeks in the Midwest. The market will be watching closely to see if that pattern continues. 

Brazil’s soybean harvest is nearly complete at 96% and first crop corn harvest was estimated at 82% which was 2 points ahead of average. Argentina’s soybean harvest is being delayed by too much rain. The second crop corn in Brazil has been receiving timely rains and no major issues are being reported. 

Corn inspections were at the very top end of expectations this week and wheat inspections were even higher than expected. Soybeans were within expectations but at a 33 week low as the seasonal decline continues. US corn is the only available in the world and we saw another flash sale to Mexico last week of old crop and new crop. Their drought continues and they will continue to need ever increasing amounts of US corn until their production can rebound. 

Markets will continue to watch weather and outside market developments.