Even with another record corn production forecast issued by USDA for September, initial market reaction was an increase in futures prices. Why? Some analysts say it is because of how USDA projects the use of all that corn within this month’s supply and demand estimate. World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski says, in particular:

“Very strong U.S. corn exports.”

So, for instance, within the 2024–25 corn marketing year:

“[That] year we raised our corn export forecast by 10 million bushels. It’s now at just over 2.8 billion bushels.”

And according to Jekanowski, that export strength should continue into the new marketing year of 2025–26:

“And we raised our export forecast by 100 million bushels. So, our U.S. corn export forecast is now just under 3 billion bushels — 2.975 billion, to be exact. That would be up about 145 million bushels year over year.”

What Jekanowski says, if realized, is a big increase in corn exports. One reason for export demand for our nation’s corn is developments within one of the U.S.’s main global market competitors — Brazil:

“Back here, 2024–2025, we raised Brazil’s farm production forecast by 3 million tons based on harvest results. Noteworthy, huge crop, but we did not increase their exports. They are developing their internal market, especially for ethanol. So that’s keeping some of that corn off of the global market.”

In addition, current USDA forecasts indicate a 4-million-ton year-over-year reduction in Brazilian corn production for the 2025–26 marketing year. Even with the increased exports for the U.S., our country and Brazil are expected to bring increased corn ending stocks from the old crop marketing year to the new.