This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Grain markets continue to trade on low volume and no enthusiasm. Harvest is picking up steam in the Midwest, and while there are some good yields out there, there is also a lot of disease pressure and some areas that are well below what was expected.

USDA reported corn harvest progress at 11% complete, which advanced 4 points from last week and compares to 13% complete this week last year, also right in line with the five-year average. Soybean harvest was estimated at 9% complete, advancing 4 points from last week. That compares to 12% this week last year and is right at the five-year average.

More than a few yield reports are noting field losses are increasing by the day due to poor stalk strength from disease pressure. There is widespread rain forecast for much of the Midwest and Southeast over the next seven days. That will slow harvest down a bit, but a big portion of the growing region has had an extremely dry finish to the growing season. All of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Missouri have had the driest August and first half of September in over 100 years.

Mississippi River levels continue to drop, and the soils are so dry, even an inch of rain in many areas will not make it far downstream. This was not the finish the crops needed, and we know yield will suffer—we just do not know how much yet.

It is still going to be a big crop due to the amount of acres, but not as big as the market had priced in early. We still need very robust demand, though, to have a chance for higher prices.

Last week did not bring the news we needed on the demand front for soybeans. Trade talks with China concluded in Spain early in the week, with much progress touted. There was a much-anticipated phone call between Trump and the Chinese president on Friday, and early in the week the market traded on rumors that there would be some agriculture announcements after that call.

After the call was concluded, TikTok was the only thing mentioned. There was nothing about agricultural purchases or really any concrete progress on trade with China. Trump and the Chinese president are going to meet at the end of October.

But the window is closing where U.S. beans will be competitive. Currently, U.S. beans are around a dollar cheaper than South American origins, but Brazil will have new crop beans available to export in January if the crop gets planted on time, and they will be cheaper than U.S. beans.

If China does nothing before the meeting with Trump, we will miss most of the window to make a difference on the U.S. balance sheet. This could change at any time with an announcement, but the market is starting to lose hope of one—and that is why beans ended last week and started this week on the defensive.

We will get USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report next Tuesday, Sept. 30, at noon. That will give us the final count of old crop stocks, which will go into the new crop balance sheet as the carry-in.

The market will also continue to watch yield reports and trade headlines. We will probably continue to trade rangebound without much to get excited about.

The next Supply and Demand update will come out Oct. 9. There will be some harvest data included in USDA’s updated estimates.