The calendar has flipped to October, but that doesn’t mean we’re just going to stop looking at what happened in September. Weather-wise, we got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here.
Corey, what did September look like? Weather-wise, we know we had a lack of rain in the area. Did any of that rain over the last few days help in that instance?
“Well, Kyle, yeah, we have had a couple days now to digest that data from the month of September across the Carolinas. A few big weather stories that we followed throughout the month and now have seen in the final data. One of those was our temperatures really finished right around average for this time of the year. We know we had some hotter days mixed in. We had a few 90-degree days in the Raleigh area, especially late in the month, but for the most part, we were pretty seasonable — a lot of high temperatures down in the 70s to low 80s, which, again, is right where we expect to be at that time of the year. So, most areas across the Carolinas finished within a degree or so of their normal September average temperatures.”
“You set up, though, the big story for September — the rain, or the lack thereof. And really, across the month, we saw a gradient from the highest totals generally in the west to those lowest totals down, especially right along the coastline. For the entire month, we saw less than an inch of rain in places like Charleston, Lumberton, up in New Bern, and even as you moved a little further inland from there, we were looking at less than 2 inches in the entire month for places like Raleigh, Columbia, Greenville, South Carolina. So, we know that we had missed out on a lot of the rain over the course of the month, but really impressive to look at those totals and see just how dry it was in some of these areas.”
So, with only, at most, like 2 inches of rain for the entire month, what has that done to drought conditions currently across the Carolinas?
“Well, you know, we had an interesting end of September as well — kind of hit or miss in terms of rainfall. There were some places that saw a little bit more rain, especially up along the Virginia border in northwestern North Carolina. Some of those areas finished September with several days of pretty heavy rain — a total 2 to 4 inches in some spots. So those areas had been seeing some drought conditions. We saw some improvements there this week. Also, right down along the southern coast side of North Carolina, those areas saw a little bit of rain in late September from Hurricane Imelda as it made its closest approach.”
“But really, most other spots missed out, especially in eastern North and South Carolina. We’re looking at less than an inch there over the past week. So as a result, we have seen kind of a coalescence of drought across eastern North and South Carolina — especially across the interior Coastal Plain in North Carolina and then down through the Lowcountry of South Carolina — pretty widespread moderate drought conditions in those areas.”
“Now, that comes with a lot of the usual impacts for this time of the year. Without lack of rain, they’re not seeing the inflows to some of the lakes and the streams in those areas, so those have gotten a little drier. The soil moisture, especially, has taken a big hit. We talked about some of those warm days that we had over the last month — that increased the evaporation rates. They just haven’t had the rainfall to replenish the soils there.”
“So, looking at some of the ag reports that we’ve gotten over the past week — down in Bladen County, southeastern North Carolina — they had a few rain showers that last weekend. They say that helped the soil moisture a little bit, but it may be too little and too late for some of those late-season crops. They’ve seen lots of stress for the cotton, the soybeans, the peanuts, and at this point, it looks like they will see some lower yields with those unharvested crops just because of that lack of rain over the last month and a half.”
Well, what we talked about last week — we had Humberto. We also had the system in the Bahamas that was what’s now Imelda. It basically curved to the right. So, what was that? Was it the pressure from Humberto pushing that hurricane off the coast? Is that the reason why it didn’t impact the Carolinas as much as what we were thinking it would be?
“Yeah, we mentioned last week that this was a really complex setup with that system that became Imelda developing down to our south. But you’re right — we also had Hurricane Humberto that was closing in from the east, and then we had a high-pressure system that was building in from the northwest.”
So, it was really a question of which system would get to us sooner and potentially steer the other ones away. And that’s exactly what happened. That high pressure built in from the north and from the northwest — that acted like a roadblock. And also, we saw some interaction there between Imelda and Humberto. Those systems were in very close proximity — a lot closer than we usually see in the Atlantic. So that combination of factors did end up pretty abruptly steering Imelda away from our coastline. As we mentioned, only a few parts of our far southern coast — really, from Wilmington south to Cape Fear — saw any rain from that storm over the past week.”
“You know, for the forecast at this time last week, we were calling for potentially 8 to 10 inches of rain across inland areas in South Carolina. I think we can be very relieved that we didn’t see that much rain and the flooding impacts that would have certainly come along with that. You know, one of the real takeaways from our drought call in North Carolina this week was that this was also a missed opportunity. We don’t want to see that much rain, but seeing a tropical system at our doorstep that totally turned away really deprived us of some of that moisture that we expect — and that we really need — because of the current drought conditions.”
Absolutely. You know, follow up on that — this is the second time that we’ve had a tropical system approaching North Carolina only to be steered away by a high-pressure system. Is that normal, or is it just something unusual that’s happened so far in this hurricane season?
“Yeah, we can usually see this maybe a couple times in any given year — that interaction between these hurricanes out at sea and then these high-pressure systems that build over the continent. That always tends to be a factor. But whether you want to call it lucky or unlucky, we have seen several of those close calls. We think back to Hurricane Erin in August, and then now to Imelda. Both of those were literally right on our doorstep — we could feel the wind and see some of the rain coming down — and then those systems turned away at the last minute.”
Well, we are in October now, which means we’re starting to see more and more cooler temperatures, more of that fall-like atmosphere. Is that going to continue? Do we see any 80- and 90-degree days in the near future, or is this going to start being all fall all the time?
“Well, it has been a really seasonable start to the fall. In fact, if folks have stepped outside either yesterday morning or this morning, they might have felt fall hit them right in the face with some of that cooler weather. We saw pretty widespread low temperatures in the 50s yesterday and today — even some upper 40s in outlying areas earlier this morning. That will be the coolest morning of the season so far. But if you like this fall weather, then don’t get used to it.”
“We are in the process of a warm-up over the next few days. This afternoon, we’ll make it into the mid- to upper 70s. Through the weekend, it looks like our high temperatures will be up around 80 degrees, and for the first part of next week, we’ll be in the low 80s — so 5 degrees or so warmer than normal for this time of the year. One of the other big weather stories we’re watching is the rainfall. Will we see any over the next seven days? It looks like we will stay dry through the weekend. So, this is shaping up to be another picture-perfect fall weekend for any outdoor activities or football games.”
“Better chances of rain may start creeping back in early next week, say by Monday or Tuesday, but also lots of uncertainty there. Some of the forecast models are showing a low-pressure system developing along the coast of Florida. If that system starts to track further north, it could bring some moisture — especially across South Carolina and into southeastern areas of North Carolina as well. At this point, it looks like those areas would stand the best chance of seeing some rain, say, through the middle of next week. But again, a lot of moving parts to this system, just like we had last week at this time. So don’t get your hopes up for any rain just yet — but also, don’t be surprised to see some showers next Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.”
Before you go to the forecast for the weekend, want to add one quick question. The government shutdown on Tuesday at midnight — has that affected this climatology office in trying to do any models or not have access to any information?
“Luckily, at the state climate office, we are mostly funded by state government in North Carolina. We do rely on federal partners like the National Weather Service, but fortunately, those groups are still able to continue mission-critical operations such as forecasting. So, a lot of the data — a lot of the information that we rely on from those groups — has continued to come in. We know there are other places where we’re not getting as much data — for instance, the weekly crop reports from USDA. So, we hope for a quick resolution to this so that we can keep getting all that good information from our federal partners.”
So, what’s the weekend looking like? You said it’s going to be dry. What are the temperatures looking like?
“So, this afternoon, we’re looking at probably mostly mid-70s in the Raleigh area — maybe some upper 70s. And it wouldn’t surprise me to see an 80-degree reading here or there in parts of eastern North and South Carolina. Nighttime lows tonight, going into Saturday morning, mostly in the mid- to upper 60s. We won’t see any more of those 40s, at least for the next week. And then by Saturday, it looks like we’ll be up around 80 degrees — mostly sunny skies, possibly a few clouds building in by Sunday, and more low 80s then. So again, a great weekend overall — a little warmer than normal for this time of the year — but I can’t complain. We’ve got nice sunny skies and some nice, cooler fall weather on the horizon.”