Public hearings began on in Washington as part of the mandatory USMCA review process. More than 1,500 public comment-briefs have been submitted to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Briefs were submitted by manufacturing, industrial, and retail sectors expressing their views of the existing pact.  

There are calls for amendments to the existing USMCA from some, but according to Julian Karaguesian, an economics professor at McGill University specializing in international trade analysis, the existing USMCA agreement seems to have widespread support, based on those comments

“The overwhelming majority are in favor of maintaining free trade within North America. One of the biggest, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, were careful to point out that they have companies in every state of the union and millions of jobs from the specialization that trade allows. Ford mentioned that 80 percent of their vehicles are assembled in the United States from supply-chain integration. The Whiskey association. The Sunflower association. There are so many different submissions.”

Karaguesian says American industry groups are largely making the case that Canadian and Mexican suppliers are integral to their operations, and that the two neighboring markets are important to the success of their export businesses. 

The American Automotive Policy Council, speaking collectively for Ford, GM, and Stellantis, says the USMCA is ‘the most important trade agreement for its industry members’, enabling billions of dollars in annual savings through its supply chain integration.   

The National Association of Home Builders, representing 140,000 members in the residential construction industry, is calling on the Trump administration to scrap all tariffs on building material imported from Canada and Mexico — including Canadian softwood lumber, which it says ‘fills a unique niche in residential construction that is not easily replaced with domestic sources.’

Karaguesian said, in looking over a cross-section of the public brief submissions, there seems to be broad concerns about how the Trump administration will approach next year’s negotiations. Karaguesian said that a common theme is that trade-related industries want to keep the three-way partnership. However, there has been a lot of comment out of the White House that any new arrangement would divide the existing USMCA into two separate agreements.

“This current Administration prefers divide and rule, which would be two bi-lateral agreements, one with Canada, one with Mexico. But these Associations and these big businesses that are American, they’re saying this might not be the right way to do that. Manufacturing jobs are in their ninth month of decline. The farming states of the Midwest are hurting. If the Trump administration can be convinced to renew, I think they’re going to try and extract the most concessions possible and maintain sectoral tariffs.”

Next year’s USMCA review could result in anything from a deal extending the agreement for up to 16 years, or to a hard-headed renegotiation of its key terms, or even one of the countries giving six months’ notice that it’s withdrawing entirely.