Anticipation derived from USDA’s first set of crop production and commodity supply and demand estimates since September. The November edition revealed findings that were not necessarily a surprise, as Patrick Boyle, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, reported for this year’s core crop:
“A record high. 186 bushels per acre is down four-tenths of a percent, or seven-tenths of a bushel, from the previous forecast. It’s up 3.7%, or 6.7 bushels, from last year. As a result, total production at 16.8 billion bushels is down four-tenths of a percent from September, but up 12.5% compared to 2024.”
That core production forecast number, however, remains a record, also projected to set a record for the 2025 soybean crop yield: “We’ll let a record high of 53 bushels per acre. That’s down nine-tenths of a percent, or half a bushel, from a previous forecast.”
So, what were some of the additional market reactions to the USDA November crop production reports? Chief Academy Seth Meyers says, first:
“The corn yield estimate was only down seven-tenths of a bushel. The trade was looking for something more like two and seven-tenths of a bushel. So, bigger supplies still— a 16-billion-bushel crop— and one of the contributing factors to being down nine and three-quarter cents.”
However, perhaps as equally notable, a core tidbit from this month’s domestic corn supply and demand estimate:
“A pretty amazing forecast for the corn export program at over 3 billion bushels, and we raised it 100 million bushels this month relative to September.”
A contributor, along with observed prices, that led USDA to raise the season-ending average price for corn 10 cents from the previous forecast at $4 a bushel.