It’s important for pig farmers to take a close look at the balance sheet because it helps set the fundamental outlook moving forward into the coming year. Lee Schulz, chief economist with Ever.Ag, says one of the key highlights has been production, which was projected to be down about 1.2 percent. That decline has tracked closely with year-to-date numbers, and the same can be said for U.S. pork exports, which have also remained largely in line with expectations.
“Exports have been down two percent as well. And I think, you know, as we look at the export picture, I think, even down two percent, that’s off a record level in 2024, and given the kind of uncertainty we’ve seen in 2025, especially the first quarter, I think that’s still a pretty robust number when we look at it from an export standpoint. Now, the positive side, you know, we have seen prices stronger than in 2024, so overall, we’ve seen about an eight percent increase in prices in 2025 compared to 2024. Certainly, that’s come as we’ve seen a little bit tighter production. But you also have to point to the demand side of things, which you know demand has held to allow us to see those prices, especially in the third quarter, and we’ve seen prices much stronger than a year ago.”
Looking ahead, Schulz notes there is the potential for slightly softer pork prices as the industry moves into 2026.
Most of that would come in the third quarter, where, you know, 2025, as I mentioned, very strong prices in the third quarter, maybe a little bit flatter kind of seasonal curve for 2026, but again, I’ll emphasize those are forecasts, right? As we’re sitting here today, knowing that those fundamentals could change just like they changed as we looked at 2025 in front of us, and we certainly saw, you know, maybe stronger prices than we expected in 2025, but I think importantly, that kind of sets the picture for producers and allows them to then tailor their risk-management plans. And I think the biggest thing, the highlight I would take away from 2025, is that patients pays, but don’t confuse patients with being complacent.”
He stressed to pork producers that no two years are alike. The market is offering opportunities now and looking at a forecasted profitability in 2026. Producers are encouraged to continue collaborating with professionals on their risk management plans.