YOUR TRUSTED AGRICULTURE SOURCE IN THE CAROLINAS SINCE 1974
Brooks Schaffer Market Report for Friday, Dec. 19th
Dec 19, 2025 | 2:45 PM
This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at brooks@palmettograin.com or 843-540-4540.
The grain market has continued to trade at very low volume without much excitement. Corn was able to find support and managed a bounce, but soybeans continue to slide lower. There were rumors China was looking for corn offers from the U.S. West Coast, and that helped bring some buyers to the corn market. China continues to buy U.S. soybeans at a steady pace. An article from Bloomberg this week estimated they have now secured 7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, which is more than half of the 12 million metric tons target the U.S. side keeps touting. We have not seen official confirmation of that total from USDA yet, though.
The bean market keeps leaking lower despite this steady pace of purchases, as even if they achieve the 12 million metric tons target, we may still have to revise total exports lower for the year and raise carryout. The funds had a much larger long position in the market in mid November than the market realized, and they are selling contracts now. We are not caught up on USDA’s Commitment of Traders reports to know their current position, but we know it is a lot smaller than it was. The NOPA Crush report out this week showed record November crush. We expect domestic crush to keep setting monthly records as new crush capacity continues to come online. We need more soybean oil demand, but the EPA this week in court filings has kicked the can down the road on releasing the volume commitments for biofuels. The second Trump administration does not seem to be much more friendly to biofuels than the first one, despite early optimism. There is no weather threat in South America to scare the market, either.
Corn demand is growing worldwide. The weekly ethanol report this week showed record ethanol production and above the pace needed to reach USDA’s target. Despite lower energy prices, there are still positive margins for ethanol producers. Lower gas prices have helped stimulate more gasoline demand, which benefits ethanol. Despite record production, ethanol stocks were lower as expected. Exports remain very strong as well on corn. Corn is trying to rally, but is probably not going to go anywhere fast. We are trading the same range we have been for several months now. A move back toward the higher end of the range will bring additional hedge pressure as farmers sell buschels. It is going to take something new to push above that level.
Markets are already trading on low holiday volume. The market feels like it’s in a waiting pattern, watching South American weather and biding time until we get USDA’s “Final” crop numbers on January 12th, along with the grain stocks report. Those would be very big reports and market movers.
